Market Snapshot | January 10, 2024

Corn futures are choppy with a modest downside bias.

• Corn futures are edging mostly lower amid spillover weakness from soybeans.
• Brazilian government estimating agency Conab lowered its Brazilian corn crop forecast 925,000 MT to 117.6 MMT. The cut was entirely to the first crop as Conab maintained its safrinha corn projection, as it normally does until February.
• Soil moisture is high enough in southeastern Argentina to support the needs of most crops through the next two weeks, but if today’s forecast verifies, soil moisture could be short enough that crop stress increases if rain does not return soon, according to World Weather Inc.
• Ethanol production averaged 1.062 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Jan. 5, up 13,000 bpd from the previous week and 119,000 bpd (12.6%) from last year. Ethanol stocks surged 792,000 barrels to 24.371 million barrels, the highest since the week ended April 14, 2023.
• March corn is trading narrowly within Tuesday’s upper range, supported by the previous session’s low of $4.51 3/4, while resistance stands at $4.62 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 8 cents lower, while soymeal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower. March soyoil is around 40 points lower.

• Soybean futures are continuing lower for the fifth straight session, pressured by improving South American weather and positioning ahead of USDA’s reports on Friday.
• Conab dropped the Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 4.9 MMT to 155.3 MMT, though that’s still higher than many private crop forecasters.
• Malaysia’s palm oil stocks hit a four-month low at the end of December as production slumped to its lowest level in six months, offsetting a slowdown in exports. Inventories fell 4.64% month-on-month to 2.29 MMT, the lowest since August, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
• March soybeans are trading within Tuesday’s range, supported by the previous session’s low of $12.34, while initial resistance stands at $12.55 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 2 cents lower, while HRW is 1 to 2 cents lower. HRS futures are holding near unchanged.

• Wheat futures continue to be limited by stiff technical resistance, despite weakness in the U.S. dollar.
• Ukraine’s agricultural product exports via its alternative Black Sea corridor reached 4.8 MMT in December, surpassing the maximum monthly total shipped via a former UN-brokered grain deal, brokers said earlier today.
• Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta posted record grain exports in 2023 thanks to a surge in shipments from Ukraine and ongoing European Union-funded infrastructure projects, the port authority told Reuters.
• March SRW futures are trading mostly between the 100- and 40-day moving averages of $6.10 1/2 and $6.06 1/2, respectively, though additional support/resistance is at $5.98 and the 10-day moving average of $6.13.

Live cattle are posting slight gains, while feeders are moderately higher.

• Nearby live cattle are marginally higher as traders anticipate cash cattle trade to be drawn out due to the inclement weather.
• Snow that will be followed by bitter cold temps has impacted slaughter, reducing it to only 94,000 head of cattle on reduced runs, down 32,000 head from week-ago and 36,000 head from last year. The reduction could limit cash cattle demand.
• Wholesale beef values rose Tuesday with Choice gaining an additional $1.33 to $280.16, while Select surged $3.47 to $262.83, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $17.33. Movement totaled 101 loads for the day.
• February live cattle continue to face resistance at $172.17, an area that bulls have battled since late November. Meanwhile, initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $170.37.

Lean hogs are lower at midsession.

• February lean hogs are pulling back after four straight days of strong gains, though solid technical support is limiting selling efforts.
• The CME hog index is up 9 cents to $65.83 as of Jan. 8, marking three of the past five days with gains. While the gains haven’t been strong, it does hint that a seasonal low could be in the works or already in place.
• The pork cutout value slid 49 cents Tuesday to $84.53 amid a drop in all cuts except primal ribs and bellies. Movement totaled 349.8 loads.
• February lean hogs are trading within Tuesday’s range, supported by the 40-day moving average of $70.46, while initial resistance stands at $71.73.