Market Snapshot | January 9, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher.

• Corn futures are marking mild corrective gains on spillover support from wheat.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 117 MMT as he awaits production updates from Conab and USDA later this week. Cordonnier also kept his Argentine corn crop estimate unchanged at 53 MMT, while maintaining a neutral-to-higher bias.
• Brazil corn exports are expected to reach 3.73 MMT in January versus 4.86 MMT a year ago.
• World Weather Inc. reports there is the need for greater rain in interior southern Brazil where the region has been drying out recently, but rain is expected late this week into next week.
• March corn is trading narrowly within Monday’s lower range after posting a contract low of $4.51 3/4 overnight. Initial resistance stands at $4.61.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while March soymeal is nearly $2.00 lower. March soyoil is around 75 points higher.

• Soybean futures have rebounded off their lows amid corrective buying, though meal weakness is crimping momentum.
• Cordonnier kept his Brazilian soybean crop estimate unchanged at 151 MMT, though he favors the downside going forward. He left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 50 MMT, keeping a neutral-to-higher bias.
• Brazilian soy exports are expected to reach 1.3 MMT in January versus 940,000 MT a year ago. Soymeal exports of 2.03 MMT are expected during the month compared to 1.43 MMT last year.
• March soybeans are trading within Monday’s lower range, with support at $12.34, while initial resistance stands at $12.59.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 12 to 14 cents higher, while HRW is around 15 to 17 cents higher. HRS futures are 9 to 10 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are being led higher by HRW contracts amid corrective buying, though overhead resistance is layered heavily above the market.
• Significant cold air is moving into the Northern Plains, and if winterkill occurs in the first week of the outlook, it would be mainly in Montana, notes World Weather. Some thin snow cover is likely in most of Montana but there may be some gaps, or the snow may not be quite deep enough in some areas for adequate protection when temps drop to the -20s and -30s Fahrenheit this weekend.
• March SRW futures have poked above the 40-day moving average of $6.06 1/2, while initial support lies at Monday’s low of $5.93.

Live cattle and feeders are posting moderate- to strong gains at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are posting solid gains amid expectations of higher cash cattle trade again this week and heightened stress to livestock given a significant surge of arctic air in the Southern Plains.
• Expectations are cash cattle will trade higher again this week, though the first major winter storm of the season across the central U.S. adds uncertainty as some plants could reduce slaughter runs, especially with margins deep in the red.
• Choice boxed beef prices rose $1.67 Monday to $278.83, while Select fell 17 cents to $259.36, widening the Choice/Select spread to $19.47. Movement totaled 131 loads.
• February live cattle are trading near the middle of Monday’s range, supported by the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $170.43 and $169.56, respectively. Initial resistance is at $172.24.

Lean hogs are slightly to sharply higher at midsession.

• February lean hogs are posting strong gains for the fourth straight session, despite holding a premium to the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index is down 11 cents to $65.74 as of Jan. 5, marking back-to-back mild decline after two days of gains last week.
• The pork cutout value rose 82 cents Monday to $85.02, led by a $3 gain in primal bellies. Movement totaled 302.5 loads.
• February lean hogs surged above the 40-day moving average of $70.60 and the 50-day average near $71.475. Resistance stands at the 100-day average near $74.00.