Market Snapshot | January 5, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 3 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are lower following weak export data and persisting weakness in the soy complex.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 367,500 MT for the week ended Dec. 28, a marketing-year low. Net sales were down 70% from the previous week as well as the four-week average and well below pre-report expectations of 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
• Argentina will experience regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Jan. 16 and enough rain should fall to maintain or improve soil moisture and crop conditions in nearly all of the country, notes World Weather. Meanwhile, southern Brazil and Paraguay will see adequate periods of drying to allow fieldwork to advance well.
• March corn is consolidating mostly between Wednesday’s low of $4.61 3/4 and resistance at $4.69 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 4 to 8 cents lower, while March soymeal is more than $4.00 lower. March soyoil is modestly weaker.

• Soybean futures are lower after poor export data and continued forecasts for rain in much of Brazil.
• USDA reported soybean export sales of 201,600 MT during the week ended Dec. 28, a marketing-year low, down 80% from the previous week and 85% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales to range from 500,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
• The U.S. ag attaché in Brazil cut the country’s soybean crop forecast by 3.5 MMT to 158.5 MMT “due to poor weather outlooks resulting from El Niño, particularly in the Centre West states.”
• World Weather Inc. maintains much of Brazil and Paraguay will see favorable conditions for crop development during the next two weeks while rain will fall frequently enough to slow fieldwork in northern Brazil.
• March soybeans are trading within Thursday’s lower range, supported by the previous session’s low of $12.57 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $12.71.

Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents higher.

• The wheat complex is higher amid corrective buying and continued U.S. dollar weakness.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 131,600 MT during the week ended Dec. 28, down 52% from the previous week and 79% from the four-week average. Net sales were shy of the expected pre-report range of 150,000 to 450,000 MT.
• A strong storm system is expected to impact southeastern HRW production areas Monday, states World Weather, involving snow, strong winds and some rain. The greatest impacts from this system will be possible from the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle through central Kansas and into southeastern Nebraska.
• Snow cover ahead of the impending arctic blast should prevent much winterkill damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop.
• March SRW futures are facing resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $6.19 and $6.20, respectively. The 100-day moving average, currently trading at $6.12, is curbing selling efforts.

Live cattle are mixed, while feeders are posting gains.

• Live cattle are choppy as support from expectations of another week of higher cash cattle prices is offset by weakness in wholesale beef prices.
• After packers bought cattle around $175.00 in the northern market earlier this week, feedlots raised asking prices to $177.00 in the Southern Plains. It appears this week’s average cash cattle price will rise at least $2.00.
• Wholesale beef prices continue to drop, with Choice down another $2.13 Thursday to $275.90, while Select dipped 3 cents to $258.82. Movement increased to 202 loads.
• February live cattle have moved solidly above the 40-day moving average of $171.13, but remain within Tuesday’s trading range, limited by resistance at $172.44. Meanwhile, initial support continues to serve at $170.58.

Lean hogs are posting moderate gains at midsession.

• February lean hogs are marking solid followthrough gains as back-to-back increases in the cash index are seemingly lending improved confidence that a seasonal low is in the works.
• The CME lean hog index firmed 67 cents to $65.86 as of Jan. 3, marking back-to-back increases and the biggest daily gain since July.
• The pork cutout value rose $1.72 to $84.50, led by a $7.50 gain in primal bellies. Movement was strong at 436.4 loads.
• February lean hogs extended above the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $69.03 and $68.68, respectively, with additional resistance at the 40-day moving average of $70.75. Initial support lies at $67.70.