Market Snapshot | January 4, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Note: Due to Monday’s government holiday, export sales data for the week ended Dec. 28 will be released Friday morning.

 

Corn futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are higher amid light corrective buying (short-covering) for the second straight day, with SRW wheat gains lending support along with a weaker U.S. dollar.
  • Another day of little rain and mostly favorable conditions for fieldwork will occur in Argentina before regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday through Jan. 16. Enough rain is expected to maintain or improve soil moisture in nearly all the country, states World Weather Inc.
  • Ethanol production averaged 1.049 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Dec. 29, down 58,000 bpd from the previous week but up 24.3% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose 62,000 barrels to 23.579 million barrels.
  • March corn has extended above initial resistance at $4.66 3/4 and $4.68 1/2, with additional resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.71 1/4. Initial support lies at $4.62 1/2.

 

Soybeans are mostly 4 to 7 cents lower, while March soymeal is more than $1.50 lower. March soyoil is around 50 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are facing additional selling efforts amid pressure stemming from improving moisture levels across much of Brazil.
  • Much of Brazil and Paraguay will see favorable conditions for crops during the next two weeks while rain will fall frequently enough to slow fieldwork in northern Brazil. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay are expected to see adequate periods of drying to allow fieldwork to advance well, states World Weather.
  • China will use “all strengths” to accelerate the advancement and use of agricultural technology to secure higher productivity and a stable supply of crops, the agriculture ministry said. “It is necessary to intensify the application of research and development, leave no stone unturned to accelerate high-yield and high-oil soybeans,” the ministry said.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, after a four-session losing streak, underpinned by robust demand from key buyer India and higher crude oil prices.
  • March soybeans continue to face initial support at $12.68 1/2, while initial resistance stands at $12.82 3/4. Additional support/resistance are at $12.60 and $12.88 1/2, respectively.

 

SRW wheat futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents higher, while HRW wheat is 1 to 2 cents higher and HRS futures are mixed.

  • SRW wheat futures have rallied from earlier lows, which touched the lowest level in over a month amid corrective buying and U.S. dollar weakness.
  • A more active weather pattern begins today as a rain and snow event moves into HRW wheat areas, with the greatest snow accumulations near the Oklahoma Panhandle into south-central Kansas, notes World Weather. Some of the snow will melt before a bigger storm moves into the region and promotes potential blizzard conditions next Monday into Tuesday.
  • Wheat shipments from Russian Black Sea deep-sea ports are gradually resuming after temporary disruptions due to unfavorable weather conditions since November, an Agricensus analysis of port line-up showed Thursday.
  • March SRW futures have rallied from overnight weakness, though resistance at the 40-day moving average of $6.06 continues to limit buying. Meanwhile, support is layered between $5.95 3/4 and $5.91 1/4.

 

Live cattle are mixed, while feeders have firmed at midmorning.

  • Live cattle futures are choppy as fading wholesale beef values limit buying but firmer cash prices are supportive.
  • Initial cash trade started around $175.00 in the far northern market. While volume was light, it suggests the broader tone in cash trade will be higher for a third straight week.
  • Choice boxed beef plunged another $6.31 on Wednesday to $278.03, while Select fell a penny to $258.85, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $19.18. Movement was strong at 160 loads.
  • February live cattle continue to face pressure from the 40-day moving average, currently trading at $172.26. Initial support is at the previous session’s low of $170.625, with further support at the 10-day moving average of $169.92.

 

Lean hogs are posting gains at midsession.

  • February lean hogs are notching strong gains, despite wholesale pork weakness, with traders seemingly hopeful a seasonal bottom has formed in the cash index.
  • The CME lean hog index rose 14 cents to $65.19 as of Jan. 2, though it will take more than a modest daily price gain to convince traders the seasonal low is in place.
  • The pork cutout value fell $2.32 to $82.78 Wednesday, amid declines in all cuts. Movement was solid at 391.4 loads.
  • February lean hogs have pushed above initial resistance at $66.14. Initial support lies at today’s low of $65.00.

 

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