Market Snapshot | January 2, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a nickel to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are extending last year’s weakness into the 2024, weighed down by selling in the wheat and soy complexes along with outside market pressure.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 117 MMT but indicated a lower bias going forward as safrinha corn acreage remains uncertain. Cordonnier estimates safrinha corn acreage will be down 15% to 20% nationwide. Cordonnier left his Argentine corn estimate unchanged at 53 MMT.
• World Weather Inc. reports Argentina’s topsoil is firming across central and some southeastern parts of the nation and the need for significant rain will eventually rise.
• USDA reported export inspections of 569,735 MT (22.4 million bu.) during week ended Dec. 28, down 657,504 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 400,000 MT to 1.05 MMT.
• March corn gapped lower at the open and have extended below support at $4.69 1/2, $4.69 3/4, $4.67 3/4 and $4.65. Additional support lies at $4.60, while initial resistance stands at the session high of $4.70 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 27 to 29 cents lower, while March soymeal is around $8.00 lower. March soyoil is around 65 points lower.

• Soybean futures gapped notably lower to start the new year, led lower by forecast rains in northern Brazil over the next 10 days.
• Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2 MMT to 151 MMT, citing low yields on early harvested soybeans. Recent rains across central and northeastern areas of the country came too late for early maturing soybeans but will benefit later maturing fields. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 50 MMT.
• The U.S. soybean crush likely eased to 199.7 million bu. in November, while soyoil stocks rose to 1.634 billion pounds, according to a Reuters poll. USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CT.
• Brazil rainfall is expected to be greatest in the next 10 days across most of the north, while temps will be mostly seasonably with a slight warmer bias, notes World Weather.
• USDA reported export inspections of 961,694 MT (35.3 million bu.) during week ended Dec. 28, which were down 156,053 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
• March soybeans gapped lower at the open and reached a 6 1/2 month low, with initial support now at $12.60, while resistance stands the session high of $12.90 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 7 to 9 cents lower, while HRW is around 6 to 10 cents lower. HRS wheat is 6 to 8 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are lower, with pressure stemming from a stronger U.S. dollar and a broad risk-off sentiment.
• Ukraine has exported 13 MMT of cargo through its Black Sea shipping corridor, “despite systematic attacks on port infrastructure,” noted Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov earlier today.
• Colder air will impact Canada, the northern and central U.S., western Russia and Eastern Europe over the next two weeks, notes World Weather. Early indications suggest sufficient snow cover will be present in all areas to prevent winterkill. The only possible exception may be in the northwestern U.S. Plains where snowfall may be limited prior to the coldest air.
• USDA reported export inspections of 273,671 MT (10.1 million bu.) during week ended Dec. 28, which were down 187,760 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 150,000 to 475,000 MT.
• March SRW futures have fallen below the 20- and 10-day moving averages and tested the 100-day moving average of $6.14. Additional support lies at the 40-day moving average of $6.06 1/4, while resistance is at the session high of $6.28 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply higher at midsession.

• Live cattle futures are experiencing strong buying efforts outside the recent consolidation range, with the market reaching levels not traded since the end of November.
• Cash cattle trade firmed last week, though trading volume was relatively light. Packers have fresh contracted supplies available to start the month, which could limit their willingness to actively bid for cattle, though there’s a general belief they are short bought on needs coming out of the holidays.
• Feeder cattle futures are surging amid solid losses in grains.
•  Choice boxed beef fell $1.57 Friday to $289.71, while Select rose $1.09 to $260.33, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $29.38. Movement totaled 94 loads for the day.
• February live cattle have extended above the 40-day moving average, currently trading at $171.91, for the first time since Oct. 16. Additional resistance stands at the 50-day moving average of $174.22. Initial support lies at $168.95.

Lean hogs are moderately lower at midsession.

• Nearby lean hogs are lower amid continued seasonal weakness in the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index is down 22 cents to $65.35 as of Dec. 28, extending the seasonal slide.
• The pork cutout value rose $2.15 Friday to $84.76, led by gains in primal picnics, bellies and hams.
• February lean hogs have tested initial support at $67.39 for the first time since Dec. 14, with further support at $66.81. The 20-day moving average, currently trading at $69.42, serves as initial resistance.