Ahead of the Open | December 29, 2023
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRW 1 to 3 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans traded lower most of the overnight session while wheat favored the upside, though saw profit taking into the break. Light volume trade is likely to continue to dampen volatility as traders take an extended long weekend ahead of New Years. Outside markets were quiet overnight, with front-month crude oil futures seeing modest corrective buying and the U.S. dollar index trading modestly higher. Precious metals saw selling pressure, which could limit risk appetite in grains today.
Happy New Year from Pro Farmer. Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today. All markets and government offices are closed on Monday, Jan. 1 for New Year’s Day, so there will be no Pro Farmer reports that day. Grain and livestock markets resume trading at 8:30 a.m. CT on Tuesday, Jan. 2. Pro Farmer wishes you a happy New Year and prosperous 2024!
Russia unleashed one of its biggest missile attacks in the war so far today, killing several people and taking place all over the country. Approximately 158 missiles and drones were fired, though Ukrainian officials note most of the missiles were shot down. The main targets were infrastructure, including export infrastructure in the Black Sea port city of Odesa.
Export sales for the week ended Dec. 21:
Corn: Net sales of 1.242 MMT for 2023-24, which were up 23% from the previous week but down 12% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico, Colombia and Japan. Sales came in the upper end of expectations from 600,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Exports posted a marketing year high at 1.28 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 983,900 MT for 2023-24, down 51% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China, which made up over half of the total, with about half of that being switched from unknown destinations. Sales came in the lower end of expectations of 800,000 MT to 1.7 MMT.
Wheat: Net sales of 276,400 MT for 2023-24, down 14% from the previous week and 60% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily from Mexico. Traders expected sales of 200,000 and 600,000 MT.
CORN: March corn futures have spent most of the week trying to negate Tuesday’s surge higher. Bulls are seeking to reclaim prior support turned resistance at $4.75 3/4 then $4.78 1/2. The $4.73 mark stands as an important pivot, as that was last week’s closing price. Support stands at $4.71 1/2, then the contract low at $4.68 1/4.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures traded higher early in the overnight session, though have since turned lower. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $13.17 3/4 with backing from $13.26 1/4. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $13.07, with backing from $12.98 1/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw choppy action near unchanged most of the night. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $6.36 1/4 with backing from $6.42 1/4, while support comes in at $6.24, then $6.18 1/4.
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, in continuation of yesterday afternoon’s technical buying. Technical buying limited losses on Thursday as live cattle futures continue to trade sideways as uncertainty in the cash market and limited volume in futures from the shortened week are unable to catalyst a new trend. Cash cattle trade has yet to take place yet this week, which does not bode well for cash cattle prices, especially considering packers have fresh contracted supplies available next week. Slaughter numbers being down about 8% from the same period last year. Wholesale beef prices were lower on Thursday, with Choice falling 20 cents to $291.28 and Select dropping $1.08 to $259.24. USDA reported net beef sales of 2,100 MT for 2023 were down 78% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Net sales totaled 11,600 MT for 2024.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly higher tone, though futures are likely to chop mostly sideways in low volume trade to end the week. The CME lean hog index fell 14 cents to $65.57 today (as of Dec. 27), marking a fresh seasonal low. That weakness is likely to persist through New Years, though negotiations have been minimal, leading to excessive fluctuations in the daily calculations. Wholesale pork prices rose 9 cents to $82.61 on Thursday, with gains in loins and bellies offsetting drops in all other cuts. USDA reported net pork sales of 23,800 MT for 2023, which were down 23% from the previous week and 10% from the four-week average. Net sales totaled 24,000 MT for 2024.
