El Niño Likely to Set in This Fall and Continue Through Winter

Posted on 09/13/2018 11:01 AM

There is a 50% to 55% chance an El Niño weather pattern will set in during fall 2018 (defined as September through November), according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). It elaborates that most models continue to predict the onset of El Niño sometime this fall and continuing through winter.

The government weather forecaster gives 65% to 75% odds of an El Niño pattern during winter 2018-19.

Also of note, CPC says most forecasters “are leaning toward the more conservative model guidance that indicates a weak El Niño event.

https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/figure1.png

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