10:30 Market Snapshot | December 21, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are being supported by mild corrective buying following the recent wave of selling.
• USDA reported net weekly corn sales of 1.013 MMT, down 29% from the previous week and 33% from the four-week average. Sales were within expectations from 800,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
• The closure of rail crossings on the Texas/Mexico border has stoked concerns about possible U.S. export disruptions.
• March corn futures are posting an inside day up after a fresh contract low at $4.68 1/4 on Wednesday. That level is near-term support. Resistance is layered in the $4.75 to $4.85 area, where the short- and intermediate moving averages are located.

Soybeans are 7 to 9 cents lower, while January meal futures are more than $4.00 lower. Soyoil futures are around 80 points lower.

• Soybean futures facing pressure from rains this week and more in the near-term forecast for dry areas of Brazil. While the rains will be too late for early-maturing soybeans, they should help later soybeans, though more will be needed amid the prolonged drought.
• Brazil rainfall Wednesday and early today was greatest in the north from Bahia and northern Minas Gerais to northern Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso. Center-west, northeastern and northern center-south Brazil crop areas may have to deal with erratic rain for a while, according to World Weather, but there are some subtle indications of better rainfall moving forward.
• Conditions in Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay are expected to be favorable during the next two weeks.
• USDA reported net weekly soybean sales of 1.989 MMT for 2023-24, up 84% from the previous week and 51% from the four-week average. Increases were primarily for unknown destinations (785,500 MT) and China (700,400 MT). Sales were within the expected range from 1.5 to 2.5 MMT.
• January soybeans dropped below the psychological $13.00 mark, leaving support at the Dec. 7 low at $12.92. Initial resistance is now at $13.02 1/2.

SRW wheat futures 4 to 5 cents higher, while HRW and HRS contracts are mostly 1 to 2 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are being supported by corrective buying, while the other two markets are struggling to find buyer interest.
• Forecasts signal winter wheat areas of the U.S. will receive beneficial precip in multiple waves over the next couple of weeks.
• USDA estimated 32% of U.S. winter wheat areas were covered by drought as of Dec. 19, unchanged from the previous week and well below 71% at this time last year.
• USDA reported net wheat export sales of 322,700 MT for 2023-24, down 78% from the previous week and 51% from the four-week average. There were no wheat sales to China this week after its recent buying spree. Traders expected sales of 200,000 and 600,000 MT.
• March SRW futures are posting an inside day up, holding within the recent choppy trading range. Near-term support is at $6.02 1/2 with resistance starting at $6.32.

Live cattle are mostly lower, while feeders are facing slight to moderate pressure.

• Aside from the soon-to-expire December contract, live cattle have weakened as traders wait on direction from the cash market.
• Cash cattle sales have been slow to develop, though the continued rebound off the recent lows by futures is giving feedlots hopes packers will raise cash bids.  
• USDA reported net beef export sales of 9,700 MT for 2023, down 8% from the previous week but up 44% from the four-week average. USDA reported net sales of 6,400 MT for 2024.
• Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Wednesday, as Choice rose 30 cents to $289.13 and Select dropped $1.56 to $261.60.
• Traders are preparing for USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon, which is expected to show the feedlot inventory up 2.2% from year-ago at 11.950 million head. Analysts expect the data to show placements down 3.8% and marketing 6.7% below year-ago levels.
• February live cattle failed to find sustained buying above Wednesday’s high. Near-term resistance is at Monday’s high at $171.00. Near-term support is in the $168.00 to $167.00 range.

Lean hogs are mixed to mostly lower at midmorning.  

• Nearby lean hogs are being supported by strong weekly export data, though buying is limited in deferred contracts.
• USDA reported net pork export sales of 37,500 MT for 2023, up 33% from the previous week and 48% from the four-week average. USDA reported net sales of 25,500 MT for 2024. Weekly exports of 40,500 MT were a high for the year.
• The CME lean hog index firmed 17 cents to $66.54 (as of Dec. 19).
• Wholesale pork prices fell $1.70 to $81.36 on Wednesday.
• Traders are preparing for USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report Friday afternoon, which is expected to show the hog herd down 0.5% from year-ago. Fall slaughter rates signal upward adjustments to past data are likely.
• February lean hogs failed to sustain the early push above the 5-day moving average at $70.935. Support is at Wednesday’s low at $69.75, followed by the 10-day average near $69.645.