Market Snapshot | December 13, 2023

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing spillover weakness from wheat and soybean futures, along with technical selling.
• Recent reports suggest the Treasury Department is preparing to provide details on how to qualify for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. However, Bloomberg notes that even if the rules are released this week, crucial components may remain undisclosed until spring.
• Argentina’s new President Javier Milei will seek to raise export taxes to 15% on some grains, though that would not impact soy, according to a local newspaper La Nacion. Milei’s government will reportedly seek to push through the tax increase via a bill that would be presented to Congress.
• Weekly ethanol production declined 2,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Dec. 8 to 1.074 million bpd but were up 1.2% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose 661,000 barrels to 22.100 million barrels.
• March corn futures faced pressure at the 10- and 20- day moving averages, each trading around $4.84 1/2 and have extended below initial support at $4.82. Additional support lies at $4.78 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 16 to 18 cents lower, while January meal futures are nearly $11.00 lower. January soyoil futures are around 45 points lower.

• Soybean futures are marking followthrough losses amid forecast rains in Brazil beginning early next week.
• World Weather Inc. reports Brazil’s dry weather pattern into this weekend will give way to an important increase in showers and thunderstorms next Monday through Dec. 27. While the rainfall may be less than usual in much of Brazil and Paraguay, the timing and amounts should support crops in central and southern Brazil and Paraguay.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 125,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
• January soybeans have extended below the 10- and 200-day moving averages of $13.18 3/4 and $13.15 1/2, respectively, with further support serving at $13.05 3/4. Initial resistance stands at Tuesday’s close of $13.23 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are 16 to 18 cents lower, while HRW wheat is mostly 20-plus cents lower. HRS futures are mostly 13 to 16 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are consolidating within Monday’s range as recent volatile trade continues.
• France’s ag ministry increased its forecast for 2023-24 wheat exports outside the EU by 100,000 MT to 10.2 MMT, which would be 0.4% above last year. The forecast for exports within the bloc was trimmed 100,000 MT to 6.69 MMT, though that would still be 4.8% higher than 2022-23.
• Overnight, Algeria purchased between 910,000 and 930,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat, most of it expected to be sourced from the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat and South Korea purchased 60,000 MT optional origin feed wheat, excluding India, Pakistan, Argentina and Russia.
• March SRW futures are consolidating mostly between the 100-day moving average of $6.25 3/4 and Monday’s low of $6.07 1/4. Additional resistance and support are at $6.33 1/4 and the 40-day moving average of $6.00 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are mixed at midsession.

• Live cattle have rebounded from earlier weakness, though buyer interest is limited. Wholesale Choice beef strength is providing support, while lacking cash cattle trade limits buying efforts.
• Cash cattle trade has yet to transpire this week, providing little direction for futures.
• Choice boxed beef rose $2.35 Tuesday to $292.78, while Select dipped 88 cents to $258.66, widening the Choice/Select spread to $34.12. Movement totaled 129 loads.
• February live cattle are trading narrowly within the upper end of Tuesday’s range, with resistance at the previous session’s high of $168.70, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $167.375.

Lean hogs are moderately to sharply lower in most contracts at midsession.

• February lean hogs have extended to the lowest intraday level since Nov. 28 amid persisting weakness in the cash index and sharp drop in wholesale values.
• The CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $67.70, with the seasonal pressure showing no signs of easing.
• The pork cutout value dropped $2.66 Tuesday to $83.96 amid losses in all cuts. Still, prices continue to hold in the mid-$80.00 range. Movement totaled 356.9 loads for the day.
• February lean hogs have extended below initial support at $67.16, with additional support at $66.07 and the Nov. 28 low of $65.80. Meanwhile, initial resistance stands at $67.89.