Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | NH3 and Urea Agree

Posted on 08/21/2018 3:23 PM

 

  • Fertilizers were moderately higher with DAP and potash leading gains.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 3.04 points to 559.99. This compares to our 5-year average of 654.33.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Well this is interesting... Urea and anhydrous ammonia each firmed on the week and each by the same amount by the short ton.
  • This week's price action suggests urea refuses to cede control over the nitrogen segment to NH3.
  • UAN solutions were each higher with 32% up $2.16 to lead overall gains in the nitrogen segment.
  • UAN does remain priced around the midpoint of urea and NH3 so the battle for dominance will continue into next week.
  • Industry watchers are maintaining their previous forecast for lower prices by harvest, but with corn prices showing hints of firming, the downside for nitrogen may be limited.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were mixed with DAP sharply higher as MAP posted a moderate decline.
  • According to MosaicCo, wholesale phosphate prices were sideways to mostly higher at U.S. terminals in the week ended August 17.p and k indices chart
  • Both forms of phosphate in our survey are priced at a wide premium to anhydrous ammonia when considered on an indexed basis.
  • From the production side, wholesale feedstock sulphur prices are unchanged on the week and continue to support overpriced osteopaths products.

Potash

  • Potash firmed more than $5 per short ton on the week.
  • North American production cutbacks appear to be having an influence on U.S. retail prices.
  • Meanwhile MosaicCo reported higher wholesale potash prices at U.S. terminals on the week.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday August 17 at $4.04 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $655.67 per acre -- up $6.92 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 559.99 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 3.96 points and now stands at -95.76.
Fertilizer
8/6/18
8/13/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$507.57
$506.96
+$1.24
$508.20
Anhydrous
DAP
$491.24
$492.63
+$9.19
$501.82
DAP
MAP
$524.15
$523.81
-$4.83
$518.98
MAP
Potash
$350.84
$348.24
+$5.02
$353.26
Potash
UAN28
$249.13
$249.41
+54 cents
$249.95
UAN28
UAN32
$268.12
$268.15
+$2.16
$270.31
UAN32
Urea
$372.36
$372.49
+$1.24
$373.73
Urea
Composite
557.27
556.95
+3.04
559.99
Composite

nutrient composite index and expected new crop corn revenue chart

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