Market Snapshot | December 7, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are modestly firmer, supported by strength in soybeans.
  • USDA reported net corn export sales of 1.29 MMT during week ended Nov. 30, which were down 33% from the previous week and 17% from the four-week average. Sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 725,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
  • Conab now forecasts Brazil’s corn production at 118.53 MMT, down 538,000 MT from November, including a safrinha crop of 91.24 MMT. Conab uses trendline projections for safrinha corn until February.
  • March corn is trading within Wednesday’s range, with the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.85 1/4 and $4.82 1/4, respectively, serving up support. Resistance stands at $4.90 3/4.

 

Soybeans are mostly 5 to 8 cents higher, while January meal futures are more than $2.00 lower. January soyoil futures are around 150 points higher.

  • Soybeans sank to the lowest level since Oct. 12 in overnight trade but have increasingly recovered, with the sharp soyoil rally lending support.
  • USDA reported daily soybean sales of 121,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
  • USDA reported soybeans export sales of 1.52 MMT during week ended Nov. 30, down 20% from the previous week and 21% from the four-week average.  Sales were within the pre-report range of 1.0 to 1.8 MMT.
  • Conab now forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop at 160.18 MMT, down 2.24 MMT from last month.
  • China imported 7.92 MMT of soybeans in November, up 53.5% from October and 7.8% above year-ago but below trade expectations due to slower clearing of cargoes by customs authorities at ports. Traders anticipate soybean imports will jump sharply in December, unless unloading delays at ports worsen.
  • World Weather Inc. says center-south and northeastern Brazil rainfall continues to be a concern as advertised rain events for the region have yet to materialize. The forecaster notes there have been pockets of beneficial rain within the past week in Mato Grosso, though crop conditions remain quite varied throughout the state. Center-west Brazil rainfall should increase briefly this weekend into early next week and again late in the two-week forecast period.
  • January soybeans continue to consolidate mostly between initial resistance at $13.08 and support at $12.88 1/4. A breakout from that area would face additional resistance at the 200-day moving average of $13.20 and support at $12.81 1/4.

 

SRW wheat futures are firmed at midmorning, while HRW is mostly 1 to 3 cents higher. HRS is mostly 1 to 2 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat futures faced corrective selling earlier but have started to rebound. 
  • Wheat export sales totaled 356,400 MT during week ended Nov. 30., down 43% from the previous week but up 8% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales to range from 250,000 to 800,000 MT. The flurry of SRW sales announced to China this week will show up in next week’s report for the week ended Dec. 7.
  • Romania’s plan to boost the monthly capacity for Ukrainian grain through its Constanta port to 4 MMT is still achievable, according to Transport Minister Sorin Grindeanu. Transit through Romania was a record 3 MMT in October.
  • March SRW futures have rallied from early session weakness, which tested support at the 100-day moving average of $6.31 1/4 and $6.22 3/4. Meanwhile, initial resistance stands at $6.46 3/4.

 

Live cattle are posting slight to moderate gains, while feeders sharply higher.

  • Live cattle and feeders are notching corrective gains amid heavily oversold conditions.
  • Cash cattle prices have been mostly $2.00 to $4.00 lower this week.
  • Choice boxed beef prices slid $3.19 Wednesday to $290.56 while Select rose 77 cents to $259.90, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $30.66. Packers moved a massive 235 loads of product in the spot market, building on the recent surge in retailer buying.
  • USDA reported net beef export sales of 200 MT for 2023, a low for the year, and sales of 18,400 MT for 2024.
  • February live cattle are trading narrowly within Wednesday’s broad range, with resistance at $165.06, while Wednesday’s low of $162.55 provides support.

 

Lean hogs are marking moderate to sharp losses in most contracts at midsession.

  • February lean hog futures gapped lower at the open as technical pressure and seasonal weakness continue to weigh on prices.
  • The CME lean hog index is down another 17 cents to $69.43 as of Dec. 5.
  • The pork cutout value fell $1.47 Wednesday to $83.20 amid a drop in all cuts. Movement totaled 353.4 loads.
  • USDA reported net pork export sales of 25,900 MT for 2023, up 23% from the previous week but down 14% from the four-week average. Net sales totaled 10,100 MT for 2024.
  • February lean hogs tested support at support at $67.52. The 10-day moving average of $69.27 is resistance.

 

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