Market Snapshot | December 5, 2023

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are trading higher for the fifth straight session, though mild pressure in soybean futures is limiting buyer interest.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier trimmed his Brazil corn production estimate by 3 MMT to 118 MMT, stating “all indications point to smaller safrinha corn acreage.” Cordonnier left his forecast for Argentina corn production unchanged at 52 MMT.
• Brazil exported a record 7.406 MMT of corn during November, surpassing the previous high for the month. For August through November, Brazil shipped almost 34 MMT of corn, 28% more than prior record for the four-month period.
• March corn are trading within a range outlined by resistance at the 40-day moving average of $4.92 1/2 and support at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.82 3/4 and $4.85 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower, while January meal futures are around $1.50 higher. January soyoil futures are around 90 points lower.

• Soybean futures gave up earlier attempts to recapture a portion of Monday’s losses despite lower Brazilian production pegs.
• Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean crop estimate 1 MMT to 157 MMT, noting recent rains came too late for a full recovery in early planted soybeans in central Brazil. He also stated soybean harvest started in remote areas of Mato Grosso last week, a month earlier than normal, with yields predictably well below average. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean crop estimate unchanged at 50 MMT.
• Soybean production estimates in Brazil’s largest agricultural-producing state, Mato Grosso, have been trimmed due to challenging conditions since the beginning of the first soybean planting campaign. The states agriculture institute IMEA slashed production by 3.8% from November’s estimate to 42.1 MMT.
• Brazil exported 5.196 MMT of soybeans in November, just topping the previous record for the month. For the first 11 months of 2023, Brazil exported nearly 98 MMT of soybeans, up nearly 18% from the prior record from two years ago.
• January soybeans are consolidating between the 200-day moving average of $13.20 3/4 and initial support at $12.96 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are around 3 to 5 cents higher, while HRW is mostly 2 to 3 cents higher. HRS is 1 to 2 cents higher.

• SRW wheat futures have extended recent gains to a 3-month high, though strong technical resistance could dampen a further move higher.
• USDA reported daily sales of 198,000 MT of SRW wheat to China during 2023-24, bringing total sales this week to 638,000 MT.
• World Weather Inc. reports precip will be limited in the west-central and southwestern U.S. HRW winter wheat areas during the coming 10 days, though some light rain and snow will fall briefly Friday into Saturday.
• March SRW futures poked above resistance at $6.31 1/4 and the 100-day moving average of $6.32 1/2 for the first time since Aug. 9. Support is at $6.15 3/4.

Live cattle are slightly higher while feeders are sharply higher at midmorning.

• Live cattle are attempting to pull away from Monday’s 11-month low, though overhead resistance and fading cash and wholesale fundamentals continue to pressure prices.
• Last week’s average cash cattle price fell another $2.32, marking the fourth straight weekly decline, with prices falling $10.44 over the period.
• Wholesale beef prices dropped Monday, with Choice falling $2.47 to $294.99, while Select declined $2.66 to $262.83, widening the Choice/Select spread to $32.16. Movement remained solid at 169 loads.
• February live cattle are trading narrowly within Monday’s range, limited by resistance at $169.18, while support lies at Monday’s low of $166.63.

Lean hogs are posting moderate losses at midsession.

• Nearby lean hogs are lower, pressured by overhead resistance and an extended seasonal decline in the cash index.  
• The CME lean hog index dropped another 74 cents to $69.84 as of Dec. 1, extending the seasonal price decline.
• The pork cutout value rose 88 cents Monday to $88.43, led by a $3.88 gain in primal bellies. Movement totaled 312.3 loads.
• February lean hogs continue to face technical headwinds at the 10-day moving average of $69.94, with initial support at $69.56. Additional resistance stands at $70.74, while further support lies at $68.32.