Market Snapshot | December 1, 2023

Corn futures are chopping around unchanged at midmorning.

• Corn futures are choppy in quiet two-sided trade, with some contracts poking above unchanged.
• USDA is expected to report corn-for-ethanol use during October rose 452.7 million bu., up 22.6 million bu. (5.3%) from September and 4.1 million bu. (0.9%) higher than October 2022.
• Some of the rain advertised from late this weekend into early next week across central Brazil seems a little weaker today on some of the model runs, according to World Weather Inc. There is still no sign of a “normal” monsoon pattern in Brazil for the next two weeks.
• March corn poked above resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.81 3/4, while initial support lies at $4.77. Additional resistance and support are at the 20-day moving average of $4.85 1/4 and $4.71 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly a dime to 14 cents lower, while January meal futures are more than $9.00 lower. January soyoil futures are around 50 points lower.

• Soybean futures are extending lower for the second straight session as meal weakness weighs on the complex.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 132,000 MT to China and 198,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
• USDA is expected to report October soybean crush at an all-time high of 199.2 million bu. during the month based on a Bloomberg survey. That would be up 24.5 million bu. (14.0%) from September and 2.5 million bu. (1.3%) above last year.
• The distribution of rain remains poor in northern Brazil and despite the computer forecasts models suggesting better rain is coming, there is still no sign of a “normal” monsoon pattern and rainfall will continue erratic and often light enough for drying to occur, states World Weather Inc.
• January soybeans continue to be supported by the 100- and 10-day moving averages, both of which are currently around $13.47.

SRW wheat futures are around a penny higher, HRW is around a penny lower, while HRS is 2 to 3 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are mostly lower in the wake of three days of corrective gains, though some SRW contracts are trying to firm.
• World Weather notes warming in December may bring some wheat out of dormancy once again in the Central Plains and Midwest.
• Russia’s wheat export tax for Dec. 6-12 will be 3,808.1 rubles ($42.35) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $253.20. That’s down from a rate of 3,820.2 rubles per metric ton the previous week and the third straight weekly decline.
• Ukraine has harvested almost 77 MMT of grain and oilseeds from the 2023 harvest so far, according to the agriculture ministry.
• March HRW futures are hovering mostly above the 20-day moving average of $6.37 3/4, while Thursday’s high of $6.46 1/4 serves up resistance. Initial support remains at $6.32 3/4.

Live cattle are moderately lower while feeders are marking sharp losses.

• Live cattle are lower as continued weakness in cash trade limits buying activity.
• More cash cattle traded at lower prices Thursday amid the sharp drop in futures. So far this week, cash trade has been mostly $1.00 to $3.00 lower on a live basis and as much as $4.00 lower for the dressed market.
• Wholesale beef prices rose Thursday, with Choice gaining $1.99 to $299.02, while Select rose 66 cents to $264.75, widening the Choice/Select spread to $34.27. Movement was strong at 181 loads for the day.  
• February live cattle are trading within Thursday’s, with resistance at the 10-day moving average of $173.47, while support lies at $170.075.

Lean hogs are posting slight to moderate losses at midsession.

• Nearby lean hogs are facing pressure amid persisting seasonal weakness in the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 18 cents to $71.35 as of Nov. 29.
• The pork cutout value slipped 14 cents Thursday to $83.83 cents amid drops in all cuts except primal hams and picnics. Movement totaled 321 loads for the day.
• February lean hogs have tested the 10-day moving average of $71.08 for the second straight session, though resistance at $72.15 continues to limit momentum. Initial support is at $70.275.