Market Snapshot | November 30, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 5 to 6 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are posting followthrough corrective gains amid strong weekly export sales.
  • USDA reported corn export sales of 1.928 MMT for week ended Nov. 23, a marketing-year high that was up 35% from the previous week and 54% from the four-week average. Net sales exceeded the pre-report expectations ranging from 600,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
  • USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack told Reuters Chinese buyers took advantage of lower prices for corn in Brazil leading to a nearly 20% drop in U.S. exports, but he expected the numbers to rise again over time. At the same time, he said the U.S. government was working hard to reduce American exporters’ over-reliance on China and other big markets to encourage greater diversification.
  • March corn futures have pushed above resistance at $4.78 1/2 and $4.81 1/4. The 10-day moving average of $4.83 1/4 and 20-day moving average at $4.85 1/2 are additional resistance, while initial support lies at $4.74 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower, while January meal futures are more than $2.00 lower. January soyoil futures are around 60 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are trading narrowly in consolidative trade as extended weakness in meal futures pressures the complex despite notable export sales and persisting South American weather concerns.
  • USDA reported daily soybean sales of 134,000 MT to China for 2023-24.
  • For week ended Nov. 23, USDA reported net soybean sales of 1.895 MMT, which were up 97% from the previous week and 10% from the four-week average. Net sales topped the pre-report range of 850,000 MT to 1.5 MMT. 
  • Center-west and northeastern Brazil dryness remains a concern, notes World Weather Inc. The current bout of dry and warm weather will last into Saturday, with crop stress rising daily for all crop areas that missed last weekend’s rain event. Center-west and southern Brazil will receive timely rainfall Saturday night through Tuesday, though the precip will be highly variable benefitting some crop areas far more than others.
  • January soybeans are trading within Wednesday’s range, mostly between the 10-day moving average of $13.49 1/4 and support at $13.38 1/2. Additional resistance and support are at the 20-day moving average of $13.55 1/2 and the 40-day moving average of $13.29 1/2, respectively.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 5 to 8 cents higher, while HRS is mostly 3 to 5 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures are extending higher for the third straight session, though technical resistance and a stronger U.S. dollar are curbing momentum.
  • USDA reported wheat export sales of 622,800 MT during week ended Nov. 23, up notably from the previous week and the four-week average. Net sales surpassed the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
  • Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy said it expects Russia’s 2024-25 grain crop to total 145 MMT, including 92 MMT of wheat. IKAR projects Russia will export 63 MMT of grain in 2024-25, including 48 MMT of wheat.
  • March SRW futures have extended above the 20-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 8, though resistance at $6.42 1/4 is limiting further gains. Initial support is at $6.29.

Live cattle and feeders are marking heavy losses at midmorning.

  • Live cattle are giving back gains from the past two sessions amid pressure from weakening wholesale fundamentals and light weekly exports.
  • Light cash cattle trade this week began at $1.00 to $2.00 lower prices following Monday’s sharp futures selloff, but most feedlots passed.
  • Wholesale beef prices fell Wednesday, with Choice dropping $1.14 to $297.03, while Select declined $2.26 to $264.09 widening the Choice/Select spread to $32.94. Movement totaled 137 loads for the day.
  • USDA reported net beef sales of 6,300 MT for 2023, down 37% from the previous week and 49% from the four-week average.
  • February live cattle continue to face technical resistance at the 10-day moving average of $173.425, while support lies at Tuesday’s low of $169.35.

Lean hogs are firmer at midsession.

  • Nearby lean hogs are posting slight gains, limited by continued cash weakness and fading wholesale fundamentals.
  • The CME lean hog index is down another 13 cents to $71.53 as of Nov. 28.
  • The pork cutout value fell 83 cents Wednesday to $83.97, led by a $9.60 drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 324.8 loads for the day.
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 21,200 MT for 2023, down 20% from the previous week and 35% from the four-week average.
  • February lean hogs have pushed above Wednesday’s high, with resistance at $71.325, while initial support is at $69.60.
 

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