Market Snapshot | November 28, 2023

Corn is a penny to 3 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are extending lower for the fourth straight session amid continued technical pressure.
• USDA reported corn harvest was 96% complete as of Sunday, one percentage point ahead of the five-year average.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 121 MMT but maintains a lower bias going forward. He noted if soybeans are planted after Nov. 1 in west-central Brazil, it would not allow enough time to plant safrinha corn within the ideal window. Cordonnier also left his corn production estimate for Argentina unchanged at 52 MMT and indicated a neutral to lower bias going forward.
• December corn has edged below initial support of $4.50 3/4, with additional support lying at $4.46 1/4. Initial resistance stands at $4.58 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 15 to 18 cents higher, while January meal futures are around $2.00 higher. Soyoil futures are around 120 points higher.

• Soybean futures are being led higher by corrective buying amid persisting concerns around Brazil’s weather forecast.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 123,300 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
• Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 158 MMT, noting a neutral to lower bias going forward. Cordonnier also left his Argentine production estimate unchanged at 50 MMT and reported a neutral to lower bias going forward.
• Drying is expected in center-west Brazil through Saturday, with rains expected periodically over much of the next week, notes World Weather Inc. Rising crop stress over the next several days will result. Rain in other parts Brazil’s summer crop region recently offered a little relief, though the northeast is still too dry, and portions of the south are a little too wet. These trends in the northeast and south will prevail through all of next week and into mid-month.
• January soybeans have pushed above resistance at $13.38 and the 100-day moving average of $13.47 1/4, while additional resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $13.52 3/4. Meanwhile, the 40-day moving average of $13.28 1/4 is serving as initial support.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents higher, while HRW is around a dime higher. HRS is mostly 6 to 8 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are being supported by corrective buying and continued U.S. dollar weakness.
• When USDA’s final weekly crop condition ratings of the fall are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 2.5 points to 323.3, while the SRW crop declined 2.5 points to 371.6. The final CCI rating ahead of dormancy was equal to the five-year average for HRW and 14.8 points above average for SRW. Click here for details.
• Russia might impose a ban on grain exports if their stocks fall to 10 MMT, Izvestia daily reported, citing a government document. The government working group on non-tariff measures in foreign trade recommended the ag ministry monitor grain stocks monthly, Izvestia reported.
• December SRW futures are trading within Monday’s range, with initial support lying at Monday’s low of $5.27 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $5.38 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are marking strong corrective gains at midmorning.

• December live cattle are higher on corrective buying following a string of recent sharp losses.
• Last week’s average cash cattle price fell $1.05 from the previous week to $176.77, with lower prices expected again this week.
• Wholesale beef prices slid lower Monday with Choice falling 78 cents to $297.25, while Select dropped 96 cents to $267.80. Movement totaled 106 loads for the day.
• December live cattle are trading within Monday’s range, limited by resistance at $171.11. Monday’s close of $168.775 serves as initial support.

Lean hogs are marking moderate to strong gains at midsession.

• Nearby lean hogs are posting solid gains amid corrective buying and wholesale strength.
• The CME lean hog index is down $1.27 as of Nov. 24, marking the heftiest daily decline since Sept. 1.
• The pork cutout value surged $4.58 to $88.75, led by a $17 gain in primal bellies. Gains were notched in all cuts. Movement totaled 297.7 loads for the day.
• China will buy another 10,000 MT of pork for state reserves Wednesday, according to the country’s reserve management center. This will be the third batch of pork purchases by the government to support falling hog prices.
• December lean hogs have extended above resistance at $68.51 and $69.14, while additional resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $69.69. Meanwhile, initial support is at Monday’s close of $67.875.