Ahead of the Open | November 22, 2023
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 11 to 14 cents lower.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans favored the downside overnight amidst profit taking, wheat futures favored the upside, while corn was stuck in the middle and traded narrowly near unchanged. Each saw an increase in selling pressure into the break. Trading is likely to be light across asset classes today ahead of the extended holiday weekend. Front-month crude oil futures saw steady selling in the overnight session and the U.S. dollar index favored the upside, currently trading around 250 points higher.
Grain and livestock markets will trade normal hours today. Markets and government offices are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer market updates tomorrow. On Friday, markets are open for an abbreviated trading session from 8:30 a.m. to 12:05 p.m. CT. Due to the shortened schedule, we will only send out two reports – “First Thing Today” Friday morning around 8:00 CT and “After the Bell” briefly highlighting the day’s price action after the closes. Happy Thanksgiving from your Pro Farmer staff.
The Romanian port of Constanta shipped 29.4 million metric tons (MMT) during the first 10 months of 2023. This data, reported by Reuters and attributed to the Romanian port authority, reveals that 40% of this total, equivalent to 11.7 MMT, consisted of Ukrainian shipments. In comparison, in 2022, the port handled 8.6 MMT of Ukrainian grain. This marks a significant increase, surpassing the previous record of just over 25 MMT at the Constanta port.
Israel and Hamas reached an agreement to pause fighting for four days as Hamas releases 50 civilian hostages held by militants in Gaza in return for the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. At least three of the civilians released by Hamas are Americans. Approximately 200 hostages will remain in Hamas’ custody. During the pause, humanitarian relief aid will be allowed to enter Gaza.
This morning, USDA reported daily sales of 110,000 MT of SRW wheat for delivery to China and 128,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations, both during the 2023-24 marketing year.
CORN: December corn futures saw limited volatility overnight as prices were caught between soy weakness and wheat strength. Bulls are seeking to break prices above resistance at $4.71 1/2, backed by $4.74. Bears are looking to continue the recent slight downward trend, targeting a daily close below support at $4.67, firmly backed by the recent move low of $4.61.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw corrective selling overnight following a 60-cent rally in just two sessions. Bulls are looking to break prices back above former initial support at $13.62 1/4 that failed overnight, then Tuesday’s high of $13.89 1/4 that coincides with downtrend resistance stemming from the July high. Bears are looking to take out support at $13.52 1/4, then uptrend support at $13.45.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw continued buying overnight, though faced profit-taking into the break. Bears are looking to defend 10-day moving average resistance at $5.60 1/4, with backing from the overnight high at $5.63 1/2. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.47 1/2, with backing from the contract low of $5.40.
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as technical support is likely to underpin the market, though the lack of bullish fundamentals in the cash market could limit gains. Prices have traded mostly sideways for nearly two weeks. Cash trade has yet to take place this week, giving little direction to futures. Wholesale beef prices continue to trade mostly sideways, as Choice cutout rose 6 cents to $295.81 and Select fell $2.18 to $268.77 Tuesday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a weaker tone, in continuation of Tuesday’s technical breakdown. Cash fundamentals continue to make fresh seasonal lows as well, as the CME lean hog index fell 34 cents to $74.18 (as of Nov. 20). Pork cutout, after trading in a sideways range for just over a month, broke to a fresh seasonal low, marking the lowest level since early June. Pork cutout fell 88 cents to $85.21, with each individual cut apart from bellies posting losses on the day. Movement was a firm 344.96 loads, noting that packers have substantial inventory to move ahead of the holiday.
