Market Snapshot | November 21, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

Corn futures are posting mild followthrough gains amid spillover strength from soybeans.
As of Sunday, USDA estimated 93% of the corn crop was harvested, two points ahead of the five-year average.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 121 MMT, and noted a lower bias as safrinha corn acreage will decline. Cordonnnier left his Argentine corn estimate unchanged at 52 MMT and indicated a moderately lower bias going forward.
December corn has edged above the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.71 1/2 and $4.74, with additional resistance serving at $4.77 1/4. Initial support lies at $4.68.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while December meal futures are $2.00 lower. Soyoil futures are around 80 points higher.

Soybean futures are modestly higher as earlier strength fades in step with meal.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 158 MMT, noting a neutral to lower bias. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate at 50 MMT and indicated a slightly higher bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. reports Brazil weather is going to be “stuck” for a while. The forecaster notes northeast crop areas will be dry and quite warm to hot, while center west areas will see timely showers and thunderstorms, although the resulting rainfall will continue lighter than usual. Northern center south areas will experience highly varying conditions and southern center-south and interior southern Brazil and Paraguay will experience frequent rainfall.
January soybeans have tested initial resistance at $13.81 1/4 but have turned from earlier highs. The 10-day moving average of $13.65 1/2 is providing initial support, while additional support and resistance serve at $13.54 and $13.95.

Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 8 cents higher.

SRW wheat futures are notching increasing gains amid continued support from a weaker U.S. dollar.
As of Sunday, USDA estimated 95% of the winter wheat crop was planted, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 96%, while 87% had emerged (85%). The portion of the crop rated “good” to “excellent” rose one point from a week ago to 48%.
When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop rose 2.0 points to 320.9, while the SRW crop declined 1.6 points to 374.2. Both crops continue to be rated well above year-ago levels.
Agriculture consultancy APK-Inform raised its 2023 Ukrainian grain harvest forecast to 54.7 MMT from the previous estimate of 53.4 MMT due to better yields.
December SRW futures are trading narrowly within Monday’s lower range, with the previous session’s low of $5.41 serving as initial support, while initial resistance remains at $5.51 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are mixed at midmorning.

December live cattle are marking cautious gains as strong overhead resistance continues to curb buying interest.
Last week’s average cash cattle price dropped $2.45 from the previous week to $177.46.
Choice boxed beef gained $1.88 Monday to $295.75, while Select rose 25 cents to $270.95. Movement totaled 135 loads for the day.
December live cattle are trading within Monday’s lower range as the 10-day moving average of $175.77 curbs upward momentum. Meanwhile, initial support lies at $174.24.

Lean hogs are sharply lower at midsession.

Lean hog futures plunging amid persevering weakness in cash fundamentals and wholesale pressure.
The CME lean hog index is down another 57 cents to $74.52 as of Nov. 17, a new seasonal low.
The pork cutout value slid $2.07 lower Monday to $86.09, led lower by a drop in bellies and picnics. However, movement improved to 311.2 loads for the day.
December lean hogs gapped lower at the open and have reached the lowest level since Oct. 27. Support serves at $68.14, while the 40-day moving average of $70.52 serves as resistance.

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