Market Snapshot | November 20, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is mostly a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are posting spillover losses amid SRW weakness.
  • USDA reported daily sales of 104,000 MT of corn to Mexico during 2023-24.
  • USDA reported export inspections of 553,899 MT (21.8 million bu.), which were down 153,475 MT from the previous week but were within the pre-report range of 450,000 to 850,000 MT.
  • December corn is hovering within Friday’s lower range, with support at $4.64 1/4 limiting selling, while the 10-day moving average of $4.71 1/4 is limiting buying efforts.

Soybeans are mostly 9 to 10 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $2.50 lower. Soyoil futures are about 70 points higher.

  • Soybean futures are posting moderate corrective gains following a reach to the lowest level since early November in overnight trade.
  • AgRural estimates 68% of Brazil’s expected area had been planted as of last Thursday, which was a seven-point gain from the previous week. However, sowing continues to trail last year’s pace of 80% during the same period. The current pace is the slowest since the 2019-20 season.
  • Center west and center south Brazil weather will improve for a little this week, but rainfall this weekend and next week may become a little erratic and light once again, states World Weather Inc. Center west and center south crops will not be nearly as stressed as they were the past ten days again anytime soon, but the need for greater rain will continue.
  • China imported 4.81 MMT of soybeans from Brazil in October, a 71% increase from October 2022. October Arrivals from the U.S. shrank to 228,264 MT, down from 772,787 MT a year ago.
  • USDA reported export inspections of 1,609,413 MT (59.1 million bu.), which were down 330,666 MT from the previous week but were within the pre-report range of 1.1 to 2.0 MMT.
  • January soybeans extended to the lowest level since Nov. 3 overnight, though corrective buying ensued following a push towards support at the 40- and 200-day moving averages, currently trading around $13.23. Initial resistance is serving at $13.55 1/2 and the 10-day moving average of $13.62 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents lower, while HRS wheat is mostly 5 to 6 cents lower.

  • SRW wheat futures are edging lower for the fifth straight session amid technical pressure, while a sinking U.S. dollar is limiting selling.
  • U.S. weather is expected to remain a little less than ideal in the western High Plains region and dryland production areas of the Pacific Northwest, notes World Weather. These areas need greater moisture to induce better winter crop establishment, but some areas are trending a little too cool for new crop development. The Midwest wheat crop is likely to benefit greatly from rain early this week.
  • USDA reported export inspections of 358,254 MT (13.2 million bu.), which were up 135,682 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 150,000 to 450,000 MT.
  • December SRW futures are trading mostly within Friday’s lower range as support continues to serve at $5.45 3/4, while resistance stands $5.56 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are moderately lower at midsession.

  • December live cattle are moderately lower following Friday’s neutral Cattle on Feed Report
  • Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed Nov. 1 feedlot inventory up 1.7% from year-ago, as placements rose 3.8% and marketings declined 2.5%. All three categories were close to pre-report estimates.
  • Choice boxed beef fell 85 cents Friday to $293.87, while Select surged $3.05 to $270.70, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $23.17. Movement was light at only 85 loads.
  • December live cattle are consolidating sideways between the 200-day moving average of $177.89 and initial support at $174.47.

Lean hogs are mixed with a slight downside bias at midsession.

  • Lean hog futures a favoring the downside as the cash index continues its seasonal slide, while firming wholesale fundamentals limit selling.
  • The CME lean hog index is down 59 cents to $75.09 as of Nov. 16, a new low in the seasonal decline.
  • The pork cutout value rose $2.24 Friday to $88.16, led by gains in primal picnics and bellies. Movement totaled 248.1 loads for the day.
  • December lean hogs are hovering above the 20-day moving average of $71.09, with additional support at the 40-day moving average of $70.63. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $71.83 is limiting gains.
 

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