Market Snapshot | November 17, 2023

Corn is mostly 5 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing pressure from selling in soybeans and SRW wheat futures.
• China will auction 222,356 MT of imported corn from the U.S. States out of its state reserve stockpiles on Nov. 21. Sinograin did not indicate if this is one-off sale or there will be more sales of the state-owned reserves.
• Overnight South Korea purchased 68,000 MT of optional origin corn, excluding the Black Sea region.
• December corn is trading within Thursday’s range and is consolidating between initial support at $4.67 3/4 and the 20-day moving average of $4.75 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 12 to 14 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $9.00 lower. Soyoil futures are about 30 points higher.

• Soybeans are lower for the third straight session, along with meal futures as forecasts continue to predict much-needed rain across dry areas of Brazil.
• There is still much debate over the significance of rain coming to Brazil’s center-west, center-south and northeast during the next two weeks. World Weather Inc. believes near-term conditions won’t be as stressful as recent weeks, but rainfall is still unlikely to get back to normal. Southern Brazil will experience less frequent heavy rain, though precip will continue to fall more often than desired.
• Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower Friday, ending a four-session rally as weakness in Dalian’s soyoil and crude oil weighed on prices.
• January soybeans have tested the 100-day moving average of $13.46 1/4, with additional support lying at the 20-day moving average of $13.40 1/4. The 10-day moving average of $13.64 1/2 is serving up initial resistance.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, while HRW is mostly a dime lower. HRS wheat is mostly 6 to 10 cents lower.

• Wheat futures continue to face technical selling despite a weaker U.S. dollar.
• French farmers had sown 71% of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest as of Nov. 13, compared with 96% by the same time last year. The country’s ag ministry reported 86% of the soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition compared to 98% at this point in 2022.
• Some 151 ships have used Ukraine’s new Black Sea shipping corridor since it was set up in August, with a total of 4.4 MMT of cargo, including 3.2 MMT of grain, shipped through the humanitarian corridor, according to the deputy ministry for renovation and infrastructure.
• Ukraine has harvested almost 74 MMT of grain and oilseeds from the 2023 harvest so far, according to the agriculture ministry.
• December SRW futures continue to find support at $5.46 1/4, with further support at $5.38 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $5.61 1/2, then at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $5.70 3/4 and $5.71.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply higher at midmorning.

• December live cattle are trading higher amid corrective buying ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report.
• A Reuters poll indicates analysts expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report to show Nov. 1 feedlot inventory up 1.8% from year-ago at 11.907 million head. The key figure will be placements after the category greatly exceeded expectations and topped year-ago by 6.1% in last month’s report. The number of cattle that moved into feedlots last month is expected to have topped year-ago by 4.9%, while marketings are seen down 2.1%.
• Initial cash trade was $2.00 to $3.00 lower in the Southern Plains. While some feedlots may wait until after the Cattle on Feed Report, yesterday’s activity suggests cash cattle prices will be solidly lower for the week.
• Wholesale beef prices slid Thursday, with Choice dropping $1.61 to $294.72 and Select falling 20 cents to $267.65, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $27.07. Movement totaled 137 loads.
• December live cattle have rebounded after failing to find fresh selling below yesterday’s low at $174.375. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $176.59.

Lean hogs are mixed with a slight downside bias at midsession.

• Lean hog futures mostly weaker as buyer interest remains limited amid continued weakness in cash and wholesale fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is down 38 cents to $75.68 as of Nov. 15, marking a new low this fall.
• The pork cutout value fell 90 cents Thursday to $85.92, led lower by a drop in all cuts except primal butts and bellies. Movement totaled 311.85 loads.
• December lean hogs are consolidating between the 10-day moving average of $71.96 and the 20-day moving average of $70.84.