Evening Report | November 16, 2023

Evening Report
Evening Report
(Pro Farmer)

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

 

Exchange cuts Argentine wheat crop estimate, adjusts corn and soybean plantings... The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its 2023-24 Argentine wheat crop forecast by 700,000 MT to 14.7 MMT, citing lower-than-expected yields due to unfavorable weather during the growing season.

The exchange shifted 200,000 acres of anticipated corn plantings to soybeans. It now forecasts soybean planted area at 17.3 million hectares and corn plantings at 7.1 million hectares.

 

Winter wheat drought footprint expands... As of Nov. 14, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed 56% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, up one percentage point from the previous week. USDA estimated 44% of U.S. winter wheat areas were covered by drought, up two points from the previous week. 

In HRW areas, dryness/drought covered 89% of Kansas (8% D3 or D4), 52% of Colorado (1% D3 or D4), 56% of Oklahoma (1% D3, no D4), 79% of Texas (8% D3 or D4), 41% of Nebraska (11% D3 or D4), 12% of South Dakota (no D3 or D4) and 33% of Montana (no D3 or D4).

In SRW areas, dryness/drought covered 83% of Missouri (1% D3, no D4), 55% of Illinois (no D3 or D4), 74% of Indiana (no D3 or D4), 45% of Ohio (no D3 or D4), 25% of Michigan (no D3 or D4), 73% of Kentucky (no D3 or D4) and 97% of Tennessee (52% D3 or D4).

The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought improvement or removal across most of the key production areas of the Southern Plains through February.

Click here to view related maps.

 

Extended weather outlook continues to signal improved rainfall over Southern Plains... The 90-day forecast from the National Weather Service signals increased chances of above-normal precipitation across most of the key HRW production areas of the Central and Southern Plains through February. Below-normal precip is expected during the 90-day period for northwestern HRW and white winter wheat production areas. Temperatures are expected to be “near normal” over key HRW areas of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Colorado, with “equal chances” for temps in other areas of the Central and Southern Plains. Roughly the northern half of the country is expected to see warmer-than-normal winter weather.  

Click here to view related maps.

 

IGC raises global corn, wheat and soybean production forecasts... The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2023-24 global grain production by 3 MMT to 2.295 billion MT. That would be up 30 MMT (1.3%) from last year.

IGC increased its 2023-24 corn production 4 MMT to 1.223 billion MT, due mostly to better-than-expected U.S. yields. Corn production is now forecast to jump 62 MMT (5.3%) from last year.

IGC raised its 2023-24 world wheat production estimate by 2 MMT to 787 MMT, driven by improved outlooks for Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, though that would still be down 17 MMT (2.1%) from last year.

IGC increased its global soybean production forecast 2 MMT to a record 395 MMT, due to higher estimates for the U.S. and Black Sea region. Global soybean production is expected to rise 28 MMT (7.6%) from last year.

 

U.S. official: Ukraine aid needed to support grain exports... Russia has failed in its efforts to halt Ukrainian grain exports and Kyiv’s military successes in the Black Sea have allowed the country to keep shipping grain via is humanitarian corridor, a senior State Department official told Reuters. The official said the Biden administration was working through a request to Congress for more funding for Ukraine and believes there are strong majorities in support of the aid, while noting Ukraine would “have a severe problem” without the money.

Of note, the continuing resolution passed by Congress this week did not contain additional funding for Ukraine.

 

Tyson Foods reportedly hacked in cyberattack... Tyson Foods, the world’s second-largest chicken, beef and pork processor, has apparently fallen victim to a ransomware attack orchestrated by Snatch Ransomware group. The Beef reported, “Tyson’s beef plants are running and there are those in the industry who state there are no negative issues on Tyson’s beef business related to a cyber-attack whatsoever.” But the unconfirmed news was part of the reason cattle futures faced heavy selling pressure on Thursday.

 

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