Market Snapshot | November 16, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 3 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are weaker on spillover pressure from notable selling in soybean, wheat and crude oil futures.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 1.8 MMT during the week ended Nov. 9, up 78% from the previous week and 81% from the four-week average. Sales exceeded pre-report expectations from 900,000 MT to 1.55 MMT.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for the 2023-24 world corn crop by 4 MMT to 1.223 billion metric tons.
• December corn futures are being supported at $4.65 1/4, while the 10-day moving average of $4.71 3/4 serves as initial resistance.

Soybeans are mostly 28 to 29 cents lower, while December meal futures are more than $14.00 lower. Soyoil futures are around 90 points lower.

• Soybeans are posting heavy followthrough losses amid profit-taking in meal futures.
• Rains are moving across central Brazil today. Additional rains and cooler temps will occur in central and northern Brazil Saturday through Nov. 24, inducing significant relief from dryness and improvements in crop conditions. Follow-up rain will be critical for maintaining any improvements that take place, notes World Weather Inc. The forecaster indicates a return of drier weather is advertised for Nov. 25-30.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 220,000 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during 2023-24.
• Weekly soybean export sales totaled 3.92 MMT — a marketing-year high— up notably from the previous week and from the four-week average. Sales were within the pre-report range of 2.9 MMT to 4.5 MMT and the highest weekly sales total since 2012.
• January soybeans have dropped below support in the $13.76 3/4 to $13.57 3/4 area. Additional support lies around $13.50, while resistance stands at $13.87 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly a dime lower, while HRW is 8 to 10 cents lower. HRS wheat is mostly a nickel lower.

• SRW wheat futures are edging lower for the third straight session despite a weaker U.S. dollar.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 1176,300 MT during week ended Nov. 9, which were down 50% from the previous week and 57% from the four-week average. Sales were shy of the expected pre-report range of 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for 2023-24 world wheat production by 2 MMT to 787 MMT.
• Strategie Grains cut its EU wheat plantings forecast due to excessive rainfall during winter grain sowings in France and to a lesser extent Germany will lead to a decline in the European Union’s total soft wheat area for next year’s harvest. Though the firm raised its 2023 EU wheat crop estimate by 200,000 MT to 125.8 MMT.
• December SRW futures have fallen below support at $5.51 3/4 for the first time since Oct. 12, with additional support at $5.43 1/4. Initial resistance stands at $5.65 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower midmorning.

• December live cattle are pulling back from corrective gains earlier this week, while traders tread cautiously ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.
• Cash cattle negotiations were limited on Wednesday, with bids and asking prices far apart. Most cash sources don’t expect significant trade prior to Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report unless packers raise bids.
• Choice boxed beef prices rose 66 cents Wednesday to $296.33, while Select slid 3 cents lower to $267.85. Movement totaled 141 loads for the day.
• December live cattle are facing strong technical headwinds at the 10- and 200-day moving averages of $177.70 and$177.82, while initial support remains at $176.12.

Lean hogs are posting losses at midsession.

• Lean hog futures are moving lower amid weakening cash and wholesale fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is down 7 cents to $76.06 as of Nov. 14.
• The pork cutout value fell 78 cents Wednesday to $86.82, led lower by an $8 drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 273.4 loads.
• December lean hogs have fallen as low as $70.10, the lowest intraday level since Nov. 10, taking out the 40- and 20-day moving averages of $70.52 and $70.66. Support at $70.00 is limiting selling efforts, while initial resistance is at $71.45.