Market Snapshot | November 14, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is around a penny higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are choppy with a modest upside bias. The soybean and soymeal markets are providing pressure, while crude oil strength and a plummeting U.S. dollar are price supportive.
  • USDA reported daily corn sales of 101,745 MT for delivery to Mexico during 2023-24.
  • As of Sunday, USDA estimated 88% of corn harvest was complete, two points ahead of the five-year average.
  • South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 2 MMT to 121 MMT, noting “universal agreements in Brazil that farmers will either reduce their safrinha corn acreage or plant corn with minimal inputs possible.” Cordonnier left his Argentine cprm estimate unchanged at 52 MMT given recent weather improvements.
  • December corn is trading within the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.73 and $4.79 1/2, with additional resistance at the 40-day moving average of $4.82 3/4, while further support lies at $4.66 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 5 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $9.00 lower. December soyoil is more than 130 points higher.

  • Soybeans are facing corrective selling, led by meal weakness, following yesterday’s sharp gains.
  • Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2 MMT to 158 MMT and indicated a lower bias going forward. Cordonnier noted, “even if the weather cooperated for the remainder of the growing season, the late-planted soybeans run the risk of lower yields.” He left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 50 MMT.
  • In the week ended Nov. 11, soybean planting in Brazil was estimated to be 57.6% complete, a nine-point advance on the week, but behind 66% at this point last year.
  • USDA estimated soybean harvest was 95% complete as of Nov. 12, which was four percentage-points ahead of the five-year average.
  • January soybeans are trading within Monday’s range, with yesterday’s high of $13.86 providing resistance, while initial support remains at $13.59 3/4.

Winter wheat futures are a penny to 3 cents higher, while HRS wheat is around 6 to 8 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures are posting modest gains on support from a sharply lower U.S. dollar.
  • USDA rated the winter wheat crop 47% “good” to “excellent,” down three points from the previous week. When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 2.1 points to 318.9, while the SRW crop improved 4.4 points to 375.8. Both crops are rated well above year-ago levels, with HRW up 48.3 points and SRW up 25.4 points.
  • Ukraine’s grain exports through the Black Sea humanitarian corridor have reached nearly 4 MMT since it began operating in August, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He noted the grain corridor is functioning well, and they are making positive progress. Ukraine’s grain exports as of Nov. 6 reached 9.8 MMT, down 31.5% from the same period last year, according to the country’s agriculture ministry.
  • France’s ag ministry trimmed its 2023 wheat production forecast by 50,000 MT to 35.10 MMT, which would still be 4.2% higher than last year and 2.1% above the five-year average.
  • December SRW futures have edged as high as $5.85 in a test of initial resistance at $5.84 3/4. Meanwhile, the 40-day moving average of $5.74 1/4 is serving up support.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply higher at midmorning.

  • December live cattle are marking strong followthrough corrective gains after last week’s sharp technical breakdown.
  • Last week’s average cash cattle price fell $4.98 from the previous week to $179.91 amid below-average volume.
  •  Choice boxed beef fell $2.61 Monday to $297.85, while Select rose $1.82, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $28.61. Movement was light at 93 loads for the day.
  • December live cattle have extended above initial resistance at $176.10, with the 200-day moving average of $177.71 serving as the next major area of resistance, while initial support is around $174.83.

Lean hogs are posting moderate losses at midsession.

  • Lean hog futures are consolidating in sideways trade amid notable technical support and resistance.
  • The CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $76.05 as of Nov. 10. For December hogs to actively extend higher, the cash index is going to need to show signs of an early seasonal low.
  •  The pork cutout value slipped $2.65 lower Monday to $86.77, led by a near $14 drop in primal picnics. Movement totaled 273.8 loads.
  • December lean hogs continue to consolidate mostly between the 10-day moving average of $71.68 and the 100-day moving average of $73.45.
 

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