Market Snapshot | November 9, 2023

Corn is mostly a nickel lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are posting losses ahead of USDA’s November crop reports at 11:00 a.m. CT.
• The average pre-report estimate pegs corn production at 15.079 billion bu. (15.064 billion bu. in Oct.) Traders expect ending stocks to come in at 2.129 billion bu. (2.111 billion bu. in Oct.)
• USDA reported export corn sales of 1.015 MMT during week ended Nov. 2, which were up 36% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average. Sales were near the top end of pre-report estimates between 600,000 MT and 1.2 MMT.
• Conab cut its Brazilian corn crop forecast by 338,000 MT to 119.07 MMT. The corn crop forecast is based off an estimate for the first crop (about one-quarter of total production) and a projection of the safrinha crop (about three-quarters of total production).
• December corn continues to consolidate between the 10-day moving average of $4.75 1/2 and support at $4.69 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 3 to 6 cents lower, while December meal futures are around 30 cents lower. December soyoil is around 80 points higher.

• Soybeans are lower in step with meal futures, despite another day of strong daily sales.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 1.044 MMT to China, the 13^th largest ever daily sale, and and 662,500 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during 2023-24. The two sales combined push the daily sales to the seventh largest total ever.
• USDA reported weekly soybean export sales of 1.08 MMT, up 7% from the previous week but down 8% from the four-week average. Sales were within the pre-report range of estimates from 800,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
• Traders expect soybean production to come in at 4.103 billion bu. (4.104 billion in Oct.), while ending stocks are expected at 221 million bu. (200 million bu. in Oct.). The biggest changes could be USDA’s global production forecasts amid impacts of El Niño.
• Conab raised its official 2023-24 Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 417,000 MT to a record 162.42 MT, despite erratic weather through the first two months of the growing season.
• January soybeans are trading mostly between support at $13.56 1/4 and resistance around $13.70 1/4. Additional support and resistance are at the 100-day moving average of $13.44 and $13.79 3/4, respectively.

Winter wheat contracts are mostly 10 to 14 cents lower, while HRS contracts are 3 to 6 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are consolidating within Wednesday’s range as traders await USDA’s supply and demand update.
• USDA is expected to peg wheat ending stocks at 669 million bu., a slight decrease from October’s estimate of 670 million bu.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 354,300 MT during week ended Nov. 2, which rose 29% from the previous week, but were down 26% from the four-week average. Sales were within the pre-report range of estimates from 250,000 to 500,000 MT.
• Ukraine remains steadfast in asserting that its export corridor in the Black Sea is operational, despite yesterday’s attack on a civilian vessel. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov conveyed through social media platform X that vessel traffic continues to flow both to and from the ports in the Big Odesa region.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the development of transport routes in Asia during a visit to Kazakhstan Thursday, as Russia seeks to forge new export routes for its wheat and fertilizer due to Western sanctions.
• December SRW futures are holding above initial support at the 20-day moving average of $5.76, while initial resistance is at Wednesday’s high of $5.98 3/4.

Live cattle are posting sharp losses, with feeders are facing even heavier selling.

• December live cattle are sharply lower amid weakening technicals and limited cash trade this week at lower prices.
• Cash cattle trade continues to be limited, with this week’s average of $180.47 running well below last week’s average of $184.89.
• Choice boxed beef fell $1.63 Wednesday to $298.75, marking the first time Choice beef has fallen below $300.00 since early October. Select beef firmed $1.55 to $271.03, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $27.72.
• December live cattle are pivoting Wednesday’s low. Support lies at $175.02, while resistance is at Wednesday’s high of $180.425.

Lean hogs are posting mild gains in most contracts at midsession.

• Lean hog futures have recaptured some of Wednesday’s losses amid corrective buying.
• The CME lean hog index is up 42 cents to $76.69 as of Nov. 7, marking back-to-back days of price gains.
• The pork cutout value fell $1.19 to $86.58, led by a $7 drop in bellies. Movement totaled 269.1 loads.
• December lean hogs have pushed above the 10-day moving average around $71.73, with additional resistance at $72.48. Meanwhile, the 40-day moving average of $71.12 is providing strong support.