Market Snapshot | November 8, 2023

Soybean producers: Increase 2023-crop sales, start 2024-crop marketings... Soybean futures have rallied sharply over the past week-plus to their highest levels since mid-September. While there could be more near-term upside potential amid Brazilian crop concerns and increased Chinese buying, the rally is too strong to ignore. We advise soybean producers to sell another 10% of 2023-crop in the cash market. This pushes hedgers to 55% sold and cash-only marketers to 50% priced. We also advise all soybean producers to sell an initial 10% of expected 2024-crop production for harvest delivery next fall.

Corn is mostly 7 to 9 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures have recouped Tuesday’s losses on spillover support from soybeans and wheat.
• USDA reported daily corn sales of 270,000 MT to Mexico during 2023-24.
• Argentina will continue to see a favorable mix of rain and sunshine to support planting and early season crop development, according to World Weather Inc.
• Soybean planting delays and the need to replant some acres will push back harvest and cause some safrinha corn acres to be planted after the ideal window.
• December corn is challenging resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.76 1/2. Support is at $4.65 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 13 to 18 cents higher, while December meal futures are around $13.50 higher. December soyoil is about 25 points higher.

• Soybeans are rallying amid export demand news and extended gains in meal futures.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 909,500 MT this morning for the 2023-24 marketing year. Of the total, 433,000 MT were for China and 476,500 MT for unknown destinations. Those were the largest single-day soybean purchases by China since late July. Cash premiums at Gulf terminals jumped as much as 10 cents a bushel Tuesday as exporters scrambled to source supplies.
• World Weather predicts another 10 days of hot temps and little rain across much of western, central and northern Brazil, which will keep conditions for crops poor in the drier areas, while conditions will deteriorate elsewhere as the soil dries down.
• January soybeans have extended above initial resistance at $13.75 3/4, while additional resistance stands at $13.89 1/2. Initial support lies at $13.52 1/2.  

Winter wheat contracts are mostly 18 to 22 cents higher, while HRS contracts are 8 to 12 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are being supported by corrective buying, along with strength in other grain and soy markets.
• U.S. HRW wheat areas in the west-central and southwestern Plains need moisture for better crop emergence and establishment, while warming in the northwestern Plains and both warmer weather and some precip in the PNW will lead to better crop establishment, notes World Weather.
• Russia’s ag ministry is expected to set the quota for grain exports at 24 MMT From Feb. 15 to June 30, TASS news agency reported. While the specific allocation for wheat was not mentioned, experts suggest this generous quota is likely to restrict exports. The ministry said the country’s 2023-24 total grain exports would reach 65 MMT.
• December SRW futures have extended above resistance at $5.80 and $5.90 with further resistance standing at $6.00. Initial support remains at $5.62 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are marking slight to moderate gains at midmorning.

• December live cattle have rebounded from earlier lows on corrective buying after breaching key technical support but failing to find active selling at that level.
• No active cash cattle trade has taken place thus far this week apart from minimal sales on Monday at $181.00 in Iowa.
• Wholesale beef fell Tuesday, with Choice falling $1.34 to $300.38 and Select declining 88 cents. Movement increased to 207 loads.
• December live cattle traded to the lowest level since June 21 before rebounding. Support lies at the 200-day moving average of $177.53, with additional support at $176.24. Meanwhile, initial resistance at $179.87 is being tested.

Lean hogs are posting sharp losses in most contracts at midsession.

• Lean hog futures are lower despite signs of stabilization in the cash hog index.
• The CME lean hog index firmed 4 cents to $76.27 as of Nov. 6, the first uptick in the cash Index since Oct. 11.
• The pork cutout value dropped $3.84 on Tuesday to $87.77, led by a $14 decline in primal bellies. Movement increased to 351.6 loads.
• December lean hogs are extending Tuesday’s losses, though the 40- and 10-day moving averages of $71.22 and $71.33 are limiting declines. Resistance is at $72.13.