Gearing Up for USDA’s Reports

Posted on 07/10/2018 12:22 PM

On July 12, USDA will update its balance sheet and production estimates, including its first survey-based spring wheat crop estimate. Much of the attention will be on what the department does with its 2018-19 U.S. soybean carryover estimate, as USDA has said it will incorporate China’s 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans into its calculations. On one hand, the tariffs are expected to slow purchases by our top bean buyer. But the resulting price pressure also has other nations clamoring for our beans and crushers aggressively processing beans at home.

On average, traders are looking for an 86-million bu. increase to its 2018-19 carryover estimate versus June, but the spread between the trade guesses is quite wide—181 million bu. wide, to be exact. Someone is bound to be surprised. One thing the market does agree on, however, is that new-crop soybean carryover will rise from June.

The tables below lay out the pre-report expectations, based on a Reuters survey of analysts (Bloomberg for cotton). We’ll have post-report coverage online and in Evening Report Thursday.

Expectations for 2018
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

14.269

174.9

Range

14.045-14.683

172.6-179.5

USDA June

14.040

174.0

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

4.314

48.6

Range

4.200-4.402

47.0-49.5

USDA June

4.280

48.5

 

Cotton

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.*

19.60

NA

Range*

18.60-20.10

NA

USDA June

19.50

NA

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.858

Range

1.825-1.923

USDA June est.

1.827

USDA 2017-18

1.741

Winter wheat– billion bu.

Average est.

1.196

Range

1.178-1.218

USDA June est.

1.198

USDA 2017-18

1.269

HRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

650

Range

634-675

USDA June est.

650

USDA 2017-18

750

SRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

316

Range

305-334

USDA June est.

316

USDA 2017-18

292

White winter wheat – million bu.

Average est.

229

Range

202-244

USDA June est.

232

USDA 2017-18

227

Other spring wheat – million bu.

Average est.

599

Range

568-646

USDA June

NA

USDA 2017-18

416

Durum wheat – million bu.

Average est.

72

Range

60-83

USDA June

NA

USDA 2017-18

55

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

2.107

1.712

Range

2.052-2.177

1.545-1.922

USDA June

2.102

1.577

 

Soybeans – million bushels

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

507

471

Range

478-530

390-571

USDA June

505

385

 

Wheat – million bushels

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

NA

973

Range

NA

924-1,021

USDA June

1,080

946

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.*

NA

4.78

Range*

NA

4.10-5.50

USDA June

4.20

4.70

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

191.42

156.27

Range

189.50-192.88

151.00-163.00

USDA June

192.69

154.69

 

Soybeans – MMT

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

91.76

88.15

Range

89.00-93.00

85.00-92.00

USDA June

92.49

87.02

 

Wheat – MMT

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est.

272.46

265.05

Range

271.00-274.50

262.00-268.00

USDA June

272.37

266.16

 

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2017-18

2018-19

Average est. *

NA

82.79

Range*

NA

81.50-84.00

USDA June

88.21

83.02

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

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