Market Snapshot | November 3, 2023

Corn is 6 to 7 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures have rebounded from overnight lows, which reached the lowest level since Sept. 19. Strength is stemming from followthrough gains in soybean futures and a sharply weaker U.S. dollar.
• The Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls increased 150,000 in October, which was sharply lower from a revised 297,000 in September. Unemployment rose 3.9% from 3.8% a month prior. The news indicated the Fed’s monetary policy is working, giving further confidence that the tightening cycle has ended.
• Argentina will see beneficial drying through Tuesday and then some mid- to late-week rain next week in central and eastern parts of the nation, maintaining moisture abundance, according to World Weather Inc. But the forecaster noted western Argentina is going to need more rain soon.
• December corn has pushed above resistance at $4.74 3/4, with the 10-day moving average of $4.79 1/4 serving as the next area of resistance. Meanwhile, initial support remains at $4.67 1/4.

Soybeans are 12 to 15 cents higher, while December meal futures are around $6.00 higher. December soyoil is about 20 lower.

• Soybeans have traded to the highest intraday level since Sept. 18, as erratic weather in Brazil is heightening production concerns.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 131,150 MT for delivery to unknown destinations during 2023-24.
• World Weather Inc. reports center-west, center-south and northeastern Brazil rainfall should be erratic through Nov. 17, with temps throughout the country expected to be warmer-than-usual through the next two weeks.
• Indonesia’s domestic palm oil use for biodiesel will exceed its consumption for food for the first time in 2023, according to the Indonesia Palm Oil Association. Meanwhile, the country’s palm oil output is expected to drop at least 1 MMT next year due to the impact of El Niño.
• January soybeans have extended above the 100-day moving average of $13.41 3/4, with additional resistance standing at $13.48 3/4. The 200-day moving average of $13.22 3/4 is providing initial support.

SRW wheat contracts are mostly 4 to 6 cents higher, while HRW and HRS contracts are up 2 to 3 cents.

• Wheat futures are posting gains for the third straight session, spurred by weakness in the U.S. dollar, though overhead resistance is limiting buying activity. 
• Russia’s wheat export tax for Nov. 8-14 will be 4,529.7 rubles ($48.76) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $252.20. That’s down from a rate of 4,923.4 rubles per metric ton the previous week and the third straight weekly decline.
• Ukraine has harvested more than 67 MMT of grain and oilseeds during the 2023 harvest so far, according to earlier reports from the agriculture ministry.
• December SRW futures have tested the 10-day moving average of $5.71 1/4, though additional resistance is at the 20-day moving average of $5.72 3/4. Initial support lies at $5.64.

Live cattle are mixed with feeders weaker at midmorning.

• December live cattle are choppy as traders wait for further development of cash cattle trade.
• Cash cattle negotiations have been slow to develop this week. While packers and feedlots work to find a price that will entice sales, price action in futures Thursday suggests traders believe cash prices will eventually trade at higher levels.
• Choice boxed beef prices rebounded $2.35 Thursday to $304.53, while Select dropped another $4.21 to $274.34, taking the Choice/Select spread to $30.19. Movement was strong at 192 loads.
• December live cattle are pivoting around the 100-day moving average of $184.74, with resistance at $185.04. The 20-day moving average of $184.00 is providing support. 

Lean hogs are marking slight- to moderate losses at midsession.

• Lean hog futures are encountering a mild corrective pullback after Thursday’s strong gains.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 10 cents to $76.84 as of Nov. 1, with shriveling daily declines indicating a seasonal low could occur soon.   
• The pork cutout value rose 91 cents to $87.41 Thursday, while movement totaled 286.2 loads.
• December lean hogs continue to be limited by the 100-day moving average of $73.77, while initial support lies at $72.24.