Market Snapshot | October 25, 2023

Corn is mostly 3 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are extending lower for the fourth straight session as weakness in wheat, soybeans and soymeal pressures prices.
• World Weather Inc. forecasts a period of wet weather will occur in the Midwest today through Sunday, slowing harvest, but good progress is expected after the rain event, when drier weather returns next Monday through Nov. 8.
• Argentina will see some periodic showers that will help maintain status quo conditions after recent rain improved soil moisture.
• Ethanol production in the week ended Oct. 20 rose 5,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.040 million bpd, an increase of 0.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks increased 286,000 barrels to 21.398 million barrels.
• December corn futures have traded as low as $4.76 3/4, the lowest intraday level since Oct. 2, though support at $4.77 1/4 is limiting losses, while resistance stands at the 40-, 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.85, $4.89 1/2 and $4.91 1/4, respectively.

Soybeans are mostly 6 to 9 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $5.50 lower. December soyoil is around 100 points higher.

• An overnight reach to a fresh near-term high in meal futures has ignited corrective selling efforts in the soy complex.
• USDA reported sales of 126,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during 2023-24.
• Argentina’s soybean crush totaled 1.8 MMT in September, 1 MMT lower than the 2.8 MMT processed in the same month last year and the lowest figure for the month dating back to 2015, according to Argentina’s ag ministry.
• The European weather model reduced rain in center-west Brazil for days seven through 10 today, relative to the past few days. World Weather states the model has been too wet most of this week so far, so the change was in the right direction. Rainfall is expected to increase in center-west Brazil, but it may take a while for a good distribution of “significant” rain to fall.
• Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded overnight and were able to close higher, though a decline in exports and strengthening ringgit capped gains.
• November soybeans have dropped as low as $12.78, the lowest intraday level since Oct. 13. Support is at $12.73 3/4, while the 10-day moving average of $12.94 1/2 is providing resistance.

Winter wheat contracts are mostly 8 to 11 cents lower, while HRS contracts are mostly 4 to 5 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are pressing lower as weather improves across many key global growing regions.
• Rain across almost most of Ukraine has significantly improved conditions for the development of winter crops, which previously suffered from widespread drought, according to APK-Inform.
• World Weather Inc. states rain and snow in the U.S. Plains, Europe and southern and western parts of Russia is boosting soil moisture, though western Australia will continue to dry out while southern Brazil will remain too wet to support winter crops ideally.
• December SRW futures have extended below the 20-day moving average of $5.72 1/4, though additional support is at $5.65 1/4. Meanwhile, the 10- and 40-day moving averages of $5.79 1/2 and $5.82 1/4 are serving up resistance.

Live cattle are modestly higher, while feeders mark strong gains.

• Live cattle futures are still trying to rebound from Monday’s hefty losses.
• Monday’s selloff in cattle futures triggered a flurry of cash cattle sales in Iowa at lower prices yesterday. While feedlots didn’t actively move cattle in other areas of the northern market or the Southern Plains, it’s expected this week’s average cash price will be solidly lower from last week.
• USDA will release its Cold Storage Report this afternoon. The five-year average is an 11.1-million-lb. increase in beef stocks during September.
• Wholesale beef prices rose Tuesday, with Choice rising $1.44 to $305.98, while Select gained $2.98 to $284, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $21.98. Movement totaled 101 loads for the day.
• December live cattle are trading within Tuesday’s range, with resistance at $180.93 limiting upside, while support lies at $178.00.  

Lean hogs are mostly firmer at midsession.

• Lean hog futures are consolidating as traders wait for USDA’s Cold Storage Report following today’s close.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 40 cents to $78.67 as of Oct. 23, the lowest level since May 17 and now more than $16.00 below last year at this time.
• The pork cutout value fell $1.96 to $86.59, now more than $15.00 below year-ago. Movement was strong at 351.9 loads.
• USDA’s Cold Storage Report will highlight end-of-September pork stocks. Pork stocks have risen an average of 3.0 million lb. during September over the past five year.
• December lean hogs are continuing to find support at $65.75, while initial resistance stands at $67.20.