Market Snapshot | October 20, 2023

Corn is steady to a penny higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are extending gains for the third straight session, though technical resistance is limiting the upside.
• World Weather Inc. reports a period of wet weather will occur next Tuesday through the following Monday in the U.S., slowing harvest, though the soil is dry enough in many areas to soak up the moisture without becoming excessively muddy.
• Argentina will see frequent rain Saturday through the following weekend, which will improve soil moisture for planting and establishment of summer crops, though World Weather notes follow-up rain will be imperative.
• December corn has knocked on the 100-day moving average’s door for the first time since late July, but the level ($5.09 1/4) is serving up notable resistance. Initial support lies around $5.00.

Soybeans are mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $1.00 lower. December soyoil is about 120 points higher.

• Soybean futures are facing mild profit-taking, in step with meal futures, with strong overhead resistance limiting a move higher.
• Some grain shipments on rivers in northern Brazil have been halted due to drought that has dropped Amazon River tributaries to the lowest level in over a century, according to shipping services provider Serveporto.
• Center-west Brazil will be dry and very warm to hot through the first half of next week and then experience “some” showers, though the area will need follow-up rain to induce the best early season crop emergence and establishment., according to World Weather.
• Of the 7.15 MMT of soybeans China imported during September, 6.88 MMT (96.2%) came from Brazil, which was a 23% jump from last year. The U.S. exported only 133,692 MT of soybeans to China during the month, down 88.4% from last year.
• Malaysian pal oil futures posted weekly gains as strong export data and rising crude oil prices offset weaker rival oils.
• November soybeans continue to face strong overhead resistance at the 100-, 200- and 40-day moving averages of $13.17 3/4, $13.18 1/2 and $13.20, respectively, though initial support at $13.04 1/2 is limiting losses.

Winter wheat contracts are mostly 7 to 9 cents higher, while HRS contracts are mostly 3 to 5 cents higher.

• SRW wheat futures are higher on followthrough buying with outside markets lending additional support.
• Ukraine has harvested around 57.6 MMT of grain and oilseeds during the 2023 harvest, according to its agriculture ministry.
• Recent rains across key Australian growing areas are likely to increase yields, adding several million tons to a crop that had been hit by dry weather and boosting the global supply outlook, according to analysts.
• U.S. HRW wheat areas will experience dry weather through the weekend and into early next week, with needed rains expected in the region later next week. Winter wheat planting and establishment in the lower U.S. Midwest should advance favorably, though greater rain may be needed soon.
• December SRW futures have extended above resistance at $6.00 for the first time since Sept. 18. Additional resistance is at $6.06 1/4, while support lies at the 40-day moving average of $5.85 1/4.

Live cattle are narrowly mixed, while feeders are facing strong selling.

• Live cattle are choppy ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report.
• Traders expect the report to show feedlot inventory as of Oct. 1 down 0.3% from year-ago at 11.420 million head, which would be the 13^th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Placements are expected to have declined 2.0% while marketings are seen down 6.8% from year-ago.
• So far this week, the cash cattle average is $186.91, above last week’s average of $184.30.
• Choice boxed beef rose Thursday to $304.12, gaining 26 cents, while Select dropped 87 cents to $277.48. Movement was strong at 164 loads.
• December live cattle are trading within Thursday’s range, with yesterday’s close of $185.30 serving as support, while he 10-day moving average of $186.34 is limiting the upside.

Lean hogs are sharply lower at midsession.

• Lean hog futures are marking heavy losses amid continued weakness in cash fundamentals. 
• The CME lean hog index is down another 25 cents to $80.45 as of Oct. 18.
• The pork cutout value slipped 82 cents Thursday to $87.13, though movement was solid at 324.0 loads.
• December lean hogs fell as low as $66.05, a fresh contract low. Support is at $66.00, while resistance stands at Thursday’s close of $68.00.