Market Snapshot | October 19, 2023

Corn is fractionally to 2 cents higher at midmorning.

Corn futures are mostly favoring the upside, though mild corrective selling in soybeans and technical resistance are limiting gains.
USDA reported export corn sales of 881,300 MT for week ended Oct. 12, which were down 3% from the previous week and 15% from the four-week average. Sales were near the middle of the pre-report range from 500,000 MT to 1.1 MMT.
The International Grains Council cut its forecast for 2023-24 world corn production by 3 MMT to 1.219 billion metric tons.
China’s ag ministry approved over 50 genetically modified seed varieties, moving one step closer to commercial planting of GMO crops.
World Weather Inc. reports Argentina’s rain potential is still good for the coming week to 10 days with many areas getting much needed rain for a temporary increase in soil moisture.
December corn continues to face resistance at $4.97, while the 10-day moving average of $4.91 1/4 provides support.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 5 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $4.50 higher. December soyoil is about 100 points lower.

Soybean futures are handing back a portion of the previous session’s gains amid selling in soyoil futures, though meal gains are somewhat limiting selling.
USDA reported soybean sales of 1.372 MMT, which were up 30% from the previous week and 92% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales to range from 950,000 MT to 1.625 MMT.
Center-west Brazil will be dry and very warm to hot through the weekend and then experience “some” showers. World Weather notes follow-up rainfall in the region will be imperative to induce favorable early season crop emergence and establishment.
Malaysian palm oil futures fell overnight to their lowest closing price in a week, reversing earlier gains as amid profit-taking.
November soybeans are facing solid resistance at the 100- and 200-day moving averages of $13.17 and $13.18 1/4, respectively. Initial support remains at $12.98 1/2.

SRW wheat contracts are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while HRW is unchanged to a penny lower. HRS contracts are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower.

SRW wheat futures are posting mild gains amid a weaker U.S. dollar, though the upside is being capped solid overhead resistance.
USDA reported weekly wheat sales of 632,800 MT, which were down 3% from the previous week, but up 42% from the four-week average. Sales were within the expected pre-report range from 350,000 to 800,000 MT.
The Brazilian government allocated 400 million reais ($79 million) to subsidize wheat trades in 2023-24 in a bid to shore up prices. The plan is to guarantee trades at such a price level using an auction mechanism with growers, wheat millers and traders can participate, according to the government.
The International Grains Council raised its world wheat crop estimate for 2023-24 by 2 MMT to 785 MMT.
Ukrainian grain and oilseeds crop sector losses could exceed $3.2 billion in 2023 due to the high cost of logistics, fuel and fertilizer, which threaten to reduce sown areas in the coming years, the farmer’s union stated earlier today.
December SRW futures are around Wednesday’s high, with resistance at $5.91 1/4. Support lies at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, which have converged at $5.72 3/4.

Live cattle are modestly lower, while feeders are posting heavier losses at midmorning.

Live cattle are slightly lower as traders continue to wait for cash cattle trade to develop.
Packers have been slow to establish cash cattle bids, with only light sales reported so far this week at roughly $1.00 higher prices in the far northern market. Cash trade is likely to be pushed late into the week following Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.
Wholesale beef prices weakened Wednesday, with Choice falling $1.28 to $303.86, while Select dropped 28 cents to $278.35. The Choice/Select spread narrowed to $25.51, while movement increased to 173 loads for the day.
USDA reported net beef sales of 400 MT, a marketing-year low, which were down 95% from the previous week and 97% from the four-week average.
October live cattle are facing resistance at Wednesday’s close of $185.725, while support is at $184.89.

Lean hogs are mostly higher at midsession.

Deferred lean hog futures are posting corrective gains, with earlier efforts to move notably higher proving futile. December hogs are now pivoting around unchanged.
The CME lean hog index is down another 45 cents to $80.70 as of Oct. 17.
The pork cutout value fell $1.60 Wednesday to $87.95 amid a drop in all cuts. Movement totaled 306.6 loads.
USDA reported net pork sales of 30,700 MT for 2023, up 46% from the previous week and 10% from the four-week average.
December lean hogs gapped higher at the open and have traded as high as $69.45, though resistance at $67.85 is capping upside, while initial support lies at $67.85.

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