Market Snapshot | October 18, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

Corn futures are posting modest gains in step with wheat, though a stronger U.S. dollar and fading soybean strength is limiting the upside.
Weather in Argentina is expected to trend wetter over the next week, with the greatest rain in some of the drier areas occurring this weekend and again during the middle of next week. Sufficient rain will fall to improve planting moisture for corn, according to World Weather Inc.
Ethanol production averaged 1.035 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Oct. 13, up 31,000 bpd from the previous week and 1.9% above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks dropped 414,000 barrels to 21.112 million barrels, the lowest since the week ended Dec. 24, 2021.
Good growing conditions will push this year’s corn crop in France, the European Union’s largest producer, above the five-year average despite farmers turning away from the grain after a poor 2022 harvest, growers’ group AGPM said on Wednesday.
December corn traded as low as $4.88 1/2, though the 10-day moving average of $4.91 1/4 continues to serve as support, while resistance stands at $4.94.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $2.00 higher. December soyoil is about 30 points lower.

Soybean futures have turned lower as strong technical resistance tempers gains.
USDA reported a daily soybean sale of 132,000 MT to China for 2023-24.
China is short-bought on soybeans and soybean crush margins are robust, a China watcher told us, with logistical problems in both Brazil and U.S. limiting recent purchases. China is closely monitoring transportation glitches in both countries and will soon accelerate its purchases of U.S. soybeans, the source informs.
Hot and dry weather will impact center-west Brazil for the next week, resulting in accelerated moisture losses, rising plant stress and potential for crop failures in areas that were planted on light moisture, notes World Weather. Southern Brazil’s wet bias will remain in place for the next couple of weeks.
Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher overnight due to rising exports, Chinese demand and strength in soyoil.
November soybeans are pivoting around unchanged, with solid resistance at the 100- and 200-day moving averages of $13.15 3/4 and $13.18 1/2, respectively. Initial support lies at $12.95 1/4.

Winter wheat contracts are mostly 4 to 6 cents higher, while HRS contracts are mostly a penny to 2 cents higher.

The wheat complex is posting modest gains despite U.S. dollar strength as global production concerns increase amid unfavorable weather in many growing areas.
World Weather reports Argentina wheat production continues to struggle due to dryness, although some relief is expected this weekend and again Oct. 25-26.
Western Australia dryness will continue to be a concern for the nation’s wheat and barley production, with the combination of hot temps inducing greater stress for reproducing and filling winter crops, states World Weather.
India increased the minimum support price for six crops, including wheat, the country’s information minister said. The minimum support price of wheat was raised by 150 rupees (7%) to 2,275 rupees ($27.33) per 100 kg to encourage farmers to expand plantings.
December SRW futures are being supported by the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $5.72 and $5.71 1/2, respectively, though the upside continues to be limited by resistance at $5.79.

Live cattle are mostly firmer, while feeders are favoring the downside.

Live cattle are modestly higher as traders wait for cash cattle to develop, which will likely be limited until after Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report
Wholesale beef prices rose Tuesday, with Choice increasing 47 cents to $305.14, while Select jumped $1.43 to $278.63. Movement totaled 153 loads for the day.
Wholesale market strength could see packers raise cash cattle bids again this week, though margins remain in the red.
October live cattle are trading within Tuesday’s range but are being limited by the 20-day moving average of $187.59 and initial support at $186.55.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

Lean hog futures are mostly lower as cash and wholesale weakness continues to weigh on prices.
The CME lean hog index is down another 45 cents to $81.15 as of Oct. 16.
The pork cutout value dropped $1.67 on Tuesday to $89.55, though movement rose to 354.6 loads.
China imported 110,000 MT of pork during September, equal to the amount it brought in during August but 31.7% less than a year ago. Pork imports through the first nine months of this year totaled 1.27 MMT, up 4.4% from the same period last year.
China’s pork output in the third quarter rose 4.8% from year-ago to 12.69 MMT, the highest for the quarter in at least a decade. Pork output in the first nine months of this year rose 3.6% from the same period last year to 43.01 MMT.
December lean hogs are trading within Tuesday’s range, with support at Tuesday’s low of $67.30, while resistance stands at $68.31.

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