Market Snapshot | October 17, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is mostly a penny lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are trading lower for the third straight session, though solid technical support is limiting the downside.
  • As of Sunday, USDA reported corn harvest was 45% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 43%. The crop’s “good” to “excellent” rating remained unchanged at 53%.
  • Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield estimate 1 bu. to 172.5, which is still below USDA’s forecast for this month. He now forecasts U.S. production at 15.02 billion bushels.
  • World Weather Inc. reports Argentina rain potential still looks better for Saturday through Monday and again Oct. 25-26, with sufficient rain expected to improve topsoil moisture in many areas.
  • December corn futures are trading mostly between the 10-day moving average of $4.90 1/2 and initial support at $4.87 1/4. Bulls need to notch consecutive closes above the 10-day and resistance at $4.94 1/2, while bears are looking to push below initial support and the 20- and 40-day moving averages.

Soybeans are mostly 10 to 12 cents higher, while December meal futures are more than $8.00 higher. December soyoil is near unchanged.

  • Soybean futures are taking spillover gains from notable strength in meal futures.
  • USDA estimated soybean harvest to be 62% complete, well ahead of the five-year average of 52%. The crop’s “good” to “excellent” rating rose one point from a week ago to 52%.
  • Harvest in the Midwest should advance well during the next two weeks as only two rounds of well-organized rain are expected with the poorest fieldwork conditions extending from portions of Wisconsin to Michigan and Ohio where daily showers will occur midweek into Saturday.
  • Cordonnier raised his U.S. soybean yield estimate by 0.3 bu. to 49.3 bu. per acre, which is 0.3 bu. below USDA’s October estimate. Cordonnier now estimates the U.S. crop at 4.08 billion bu.
  • Center-west Brazil will continue drying out over the next week with temps very warm to hot, stressing early planted crops and possibly raising the need to replant a few fields, according to World Weather. Southern Brazil will get more excessive rain through the end of this week before temporary drying occurs during the weekend.
  • November soybeans are meeting resistance at $12.99 3/4, an area that has not been breached since Sept. 29. Conversely, the 20-day moving average of $12.85 1/4 is providing support.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents lower, while HRW wheat is around 1 to 3 cents higher. HRS contracts are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat futures are facing mild pressure despite mostly supportive outside markets and looming global production concerns.
  • As of Sunday, USDA estimated winter wheat planting had reached 68% complete, which was in-line with the five-year average, while 39% was estimated to be emerged.
  • U.S. HRW wheat areas will experience dry weather most of this week and then the region “may” get some rain next week, notes World Weather Inc. Winter wheat planting and establishment in the lower U.S. Midwest should advance favorably, though greater rain may be needed soon.
  • The absence of rain across most Ukrainian regions has created unfavorable conditions both for the ongoing sowing of winter crops and for the areas already sown, according to APK-Inform consultancy.
  • December SRW futures have traded as low as $5.68 1/2, below the 20- and 10-day moving averages, though additional support is at $5.67. Initial resistance remains at $5.85 1/4.

Live cattle are firmer, while feeders are mostly higher, with stronger gains in deferred contracts.

  • Live cattle are posting followthrough gains amid strength in cash and wholesale fundamentals.
  • Packers bought 96,000 head of cattle last week as the average price rose $1.58 to $184.30, the highest price in three weeks. With packers well supplied on near-term slaughter needs, the need to actively bid for cattle this week may be limited.
  • Wholesale beef prices rose Monday, with Choice jumping $3.87 to $304.67, while Select gained $1.71 to $277.20, taking the Choice/Select spread to $27.47. Movement was light, however, at only 87 loads.
  • October live cattle have extended above resistance at $185.78, though additional resistance at $186.37 is limiting the upside. Initial support lies at $185.24.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

  • Lean hog futures have slipped from earlier highs as fading cash fundamentals limit buyer interest.
  • The CME lean hog index is down 51 cents to $81.60 as of Oct. 13, which is the lowest level since June 2 and $11.49 below this time a year ago.
  • The pork cutout value rose 72 cents to $91.22, which is more than $12.00 below a year ago. Movement on Monday totaled 246.9 loads.
  • December lean hogs continue to face resistance at $69.425, though a push above that level would face additional resistance at the 10-day moving average of $70.59. Initial support lies at $69.00.
 

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