Jim Jordan's Speakership Prospects Improve with Vote Expected Tuesday

Jordan gives assurances on farm bill, appropriations, other issues to woo naysayers

Note: Today’s dispatch is later and briefer as I am in Boston attending and speaking at a well-attended CIPA event.

     

— Jim Jordan's speakership prospects soar as former opponents rally behind him. In a surprising turn of events, the possibility of a Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) speakership in the House is now closer to reality, as several of his key opponents among House GOP members have reversed their positions and announced their support for the Ohio Republican. Jordan sent a Dear Colleague this morning (link) saying he intends to “bring all Republicans together.”

     Jordan noted, "I think we've been picking up colleagues" in a recent interview with CBS. Shortly thereafter, Representatives Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), and Ann Wagner (R-Mo.), who had previously been vocal opponents of Jordan, all revealed that conversations with him had changed their minds.

     “I feel real good about the momentum we have. It’s real close,” Jordan told reporters, citing recent endorsements and saying he was ready to move forward on Tuesday at noon. “We’re going to elect a speaker tomorrow, that’s what I think is going to happen.”

     Trend in Jordan’s favor. The shift in support from frontline members and Steve Scalise (R-La.) loyalists, while not entirely unexpected, underscores the trend of moderates and establishment figures aligning with the hard right within the House GOP Conference. A pressure campaign over the weekend from conservative media outlets, including Fox News host Sean Hannity, urged members to rally behind Jordan.

     Farm bill assurance by Jordan. Rogers, Chair of the House Armed Services Committee, indicated that he had received assurances from Jordan on critical issues such as the National Defense Authorization Act, the farm bill, and government funding. Ken Calvert, a prominent appropriator, echoed similar sentiments.

     In a pitch to GOP colleagues earlier this month, Jordan laid out a proposal to avert a government shutdown next month, when a short-term spending deal expires. He said the House should pass another stopgap bill before Nov. 18, which would then trigger a 1% across-the-board budget cut next year, as required under this year’s debt deal with Democrats, known as the Fiscal Responsibility Act. The goal, a spokesman said, is to keep Republicans focused on passing all 12 fiscal year 2023 appropriations bills so they don’t have to settle for an alternative.

     Notably absent from discussions were details regarding Ukraine aid, which may face significant challenges under a potential Jordan speakership.

     Bottom line: As the floor vote approaches, Jim Jordan appears to be in a stronger position than he did just days ago, with Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) expressing confidence in Jordan's ability to secure victory.  But not all members have shifted their stance, with Rep.  Steve Womack (R-Ark.) and Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) maintaining their support for alternative candidates.

    Next step: The House Republican Conference is meeting tonight at 6:30 p.m. ET. Jordan has set the vote for noon tomorrow ET, regardless of whether he has secured the backing of 217 Republicans by then. The recent turn of events has left those opposing Jordan feeling increasingly uneasy about the outcome. Jordan can lose just four votes to get to 217.

     Key GOP House members to monitor to see if they switch to Jordan:

• Jen Kiggans (R-Va.)
• Steve Womack (R-Ark.)
• Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.)
• John Rutherford (R-Fla.)
• Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.)
• Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.)
• Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.)
• Don Bacon (R-Neb.)
• Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.)
• Dave Joyce (R-Ohio)
• Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.)
• Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.)
• Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) and
• Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.).
   

— Second U.S. carrier strike group deployed to Eastern Mediterranean in support of Israel. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has announced the deployment of a second carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in support of Israel. This decision follows the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the region, which was deployed "to deter any actor seeking to escalate the situation or widen this war," as declared by the U.S. military's Central Command last week.

     The newly deployed USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group includes the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea, guided-missile destroyers USS Gravely and USS Mason, and Carrier Air Wing 3, featuring nine aircraft squadrons. This combined force emphasizes the United States' unwavering commitment to Israel's security and its determination to deter any state or non-state actor from escalating the ongoing conflict.

     Of note: While the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group had been operating in the Mediterranean for several months, the arrival of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is part of a routine relief operation. Naval journalist Chris Cavas noted that the Ford strike group's movement to the eastern Mediterranean in response to the Hamas-Israel conflict aligns with their crisis-response capabilities. However, a significant exception would be if the Ford strike group is directed to remain in the region "into November and beyond."

— U.S. prepares sanctions relief on Venezuelan oil in exchange for election commitment from President Nicolás Maduro. The Biden administration is preparing to offer sanctions relief on Venezuelan oil, contingent on President Nicolás Maduro's commitment to conducting freer and fairer elections next year, with the inclusion of international monitors, according to a report from the Washington Post. This potential move marks a significant departure from the authoritarian governance that has characterized Maduro's regime. Under the proposed agreement, the U.S. may retain the option to reimpose sanctions if President Maduro fails to follow through on his promises. The prospect of lifting sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry holds substantial economic implications for the country. This pivotal accord is expected to be signed and officially announced soon, possibly as early as tomorrow.

­— NBC News has been tapped as the host and broadcaster of the third GOP presidential primary debate, taking place in Miami on Nov. 8. No word yet on the moderators or other debate details.

 — Federal Judge Tanya Chutkan has imposed a partial gag order on Donald Trump in his criminal election subversion case. This unusual measure is intended to restrict Trump's public statements that attack special counsel Jack Smith, other prosecutors, court staff, or witnesses with regards to their testimonies. The decision prioritizes the administration of justice and the protection of witnesses over First Amendment rights. Chutkan recognizes the challenge of balancing the limitations on a criminal defendant, who is also a prominent presidential contender, and emphasizes that a presidential candidacy should not grant carte blanche to vilify public servants just doing their jobs.

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