Australia’s wheat crop will likely total just 21.9 MMT in 2018-19, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). This represents nearly an 8% cut from its previous estimate for a 23.7 MMT crop. It also warned that if rains do not fall soon along Australia’s east coast, crop prospects could erode further.
Western Australia has recently received timely rains, and ABARES projects the region’s crop will climb slightly from 2017-18 levels. But eastern Australia has missed out on rains, prompting some producers to shift acres to other crops.
If ABARES is correct with its assessment, 2018-19 would mark the second season in a row where production fell short of average. The 2017-18 crop that USDA pegs at 21.5 MMT marked an eight-year low. In May, the department projected the 2018-19 Aussie wheat crop at 24.0 MMT. USDA will update that peg today.
Dryness in Australia along with the Black Sea Region, some areas of Europe, the U.S. and Brazil have lifted global wheat prices since early April.