Your Pro Farmer newsletter (October 14, 2023) is now available

Markets had a bullish reaction to USDA’s October crop reports as it cut the corn and soybean crop estimates more than anticipated, which resulted in lower-than-expected 2023-24 ending stocks. It now appears the harvest lows are in place for those markets, though export demand remains a concern and could limit sustained price advances. The wheat ending stocks forecast came in higher than anticipated, but wheat followed the other markets to the upside. Cotton got the most bullish data as the U.S. crop and ending stocks were cut more than expected, while USDA made sharp downward revisions to global ending stocks back to 2000-01, though the market didn’t respond. Geopolitical tensions increased as Hamas attacked Israel, though market response was relatively muted, as traders are used to conflict in the Middle East. This market situation could change quickly if other countries like Iran, Syria or the U.S. would become involved. On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund left its forecast for global GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0%, though that would be down from 3.5% growth last year. IMF expects world economic growth to slow to 2.9% next year. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation is proving to be sticky, which could increase odds the Fed will raise interest rates again before year-end. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can download here.