Market Snapshot | October 13, 2023

Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing mild profit-taking ahead of the weekend after strong gains yesterday.
• USDA reported net corn sales of 910,400 MT during week ended Oct. 5, which were down 50% from the previous week and 9% from the four-week average. Sales for the week exceeded pre-report estimates ranging from 600,000 to 900,000 MT. 
• Significant rain will fall today in a large part of the northern Midwest where harvesting will be interrupted, while much of the remainder of the Midwest will receive lighter rain, according to World Weather Inc.
• Argentina’s drought will persist for a while longer but may get some relief near and beyond mid-month, though World Weather states there is reason to be skeptical of the computer forecast due to their tendency to follow climatology in the longer-range forecasting.
• December corn is trading within the previous session’s range, with Thursday’s high of $4.98 3/4 serving as resistance, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $4.90 1/4.

Soybeans are around 10 to 13 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $4.00 lower. December soyoil is around 30 points higher.

• Soybean futures are being led lower by meal weakness after earlier reaching the highest level in nearly a month.
• USDA reported daily sales of 117,300 MT of soybeans and 100,000 MT of soybean cake and meal – both to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
• USDA reported net soybean sales of 1.057 MMT during week ended Oct. 5, which were up 31% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Sales for the week topped the pre-report range of expectations from 650,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
• China imported 7.15 MMT of soybeans in September, down 2.21 MMT (23.6%) from the previous month and 570,000 MT (7.4%) less than last year as hefty stocks at ports slowed arrivals. Through the first nine months of this year, China imported 77.8 MMT of soybeans, up 14.4% from the same period last year.
• Brazil’s center-west rainfall is expected to remain erratic into late month. Many areas are too dry, despite scattered showers, while southern Brazil remains much too wet. World Weather notes waves of rain will continue to delay summer crop planting in southern areas.
• November soybeans are trading within Thursday’s range and have given up overnight strength as the 20-day moving average of $12.87 1/4 limited upside momentum. Meanwhile, initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $12.72 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 2 to 7 cents higher, while HRW is mostly a penny higher. HRS contracts are narrowly mixed with nearby contracts around a penny higher.

• Wheat futures come off their overnight highs amid persisting strength in the U.S. dollar.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 181,000 MT of SRW wheat to China for delivery during 2023-24 – the second daily SRW wheat sale to China in just over a week after not recording one prior to that since July 2021.
• USDA reported weekly wheat sales of 652,000 MT for 2023-24, a marketing-year high. Sales were up notably from the previous week and 67% from the four-week average. Sales for the week topped the pre-report range of estimates from 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
• Russia’s wheat export tax for Oct. 18-24 will be 5,734.7 rubles ($58.98) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $251.20. That’s up from a rate of 5,224.0 rubles per metric ton the previous week and the highest since the week of April 19-25.
• Russia and Ukraine winter crop areas still need greater precip to ensure favorable crop establishment. While showers will occur periodically in the next two weeks, no big soaking rain is expected for a while.
• Dryness in Western Australia is still a big concern for small grain production, while Brazil wheat is facing grain quality declines due to too much moisture, according to World Weather. Meanwhile, recent showers will offer Argentina’s wheat crop temporary relief from drought.
• December SRW futures have extended above the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $5.67 1/2, and $5.73 1/2, which have consistently served as resistance since the end of July. Additional resistance stands at the 40-day moving average of $5.91 1/4, while support is at the 10-day moving average.

Live cattle are mostly lower, while feeders are posting moderate to sharp losses at midsession.

• Live cattle are mostly favoring the downside despite confirmation of higher cash cattle trade. Sluggish wholesale prices are limiting buyer interest.
• Cash cattle activity increased Thursday, as packers raised bids. Cattle moved at mostly $1.00 higher prices, though some traded as much as $3.00 higher.
• Choice boxed beef prices rose 91 cents Thursday to $301.19, while Select slipped 28 cents to $275.02, taking the Choice/Select spread to $26.17. Movement totaled 166 loads for the day.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 9,000 MT for 2023, which were down 32% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average.
• October live cattle are being limited by resistance at $185.93, while Thursday’s close of $185.40 is serving as initial support. 

Lean hogs are modestly lower at midmorning.

• October lean hogs are trading lower ahead of today’s noon CT expiration. The contract will cash settle against the Oct. 13 CME index quote, which will be released next Tuesday.
• The CME lean hog index is up 2 cents to $82.42 as of Oct. 11, marking consecutive daily gains for the first time since Sept. 19-20.
• The pork cutout value slipped 25 cents Thursday to $92.14, led lower by a $6.00 drop in primal picnics. Movement totaled 268.2 loads for the day.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 21,100 MT for 2023, which were down 51% from the previous week and 32% from the four-week average.
• October lean hogs continue to consolidate between the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $82.05 and $82.04, respectively.