Market Snapshot | October 12, 2023

Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing moderate selling as traders await USDA’s October crop reports.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 124,545 MT for delivery to Guatemala during 2023-24.
• Due to Monday’s government holiday, USDA’s weekly export sales data will be released Friday morning.
• USDA will release its Crop Production and Supply and Demand Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT. The 2023-24 balance sheets will reflect USDA’s Sept. 1 stocks. Traders expect corn production to decline to 15.101 billion bu., and new-crop ending stocks of 2.138 billion bu., down from September’s estimate of 2.221 billion bu.
• China’s ag ministry raised its 2023 corn production forecast by 3.29 MMT to a record 288.23 MMT, which would be up 11.03 MMT from last year. However, the ministry left its 2023-24 corn import forecast at 17.5 MMT, despite the production increase.
• Weekly ethanol production for week ended Oct. 6 averaged 1.004 million barrels per day (bpd), down 5,000 bpd from the previous week but up 7.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks dropped 358,000 barrels to 21.526 million barrels.
• December corn continues to trade between resistance at $4.89 3/4 and support at the 40- and 20-day moving averages of $4.84 and $4.83 1/4.

Soybeans are narrowly mixed, while December meal futures are more than $6.00 higher. December soyoil is around 40 points lower.

• Nearby soybean futures are being led higher by meal strength after reaching a near four-month low in overnight trade.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 295,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during 2023-24.
• In USDA’s Crop Production and Supply and Demand Reports, traders expect production of 4.134 billion bu. and new-crop ending stocks of 233 million bu., up from 220 million bu. in September.
• Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Thursday on improvement in demand from China as top producer Indonesia clarified that it would no make exports mandatory via a new exchange, alleviating concerns about supply pressures.
• November soybeans traded at the lowest level since mid-June overnight, though support remains at $12.44 1/4, while the 10-day moving average of $12.68 1/2 continues to stand as resistance.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 9 cents lower, while HRS contracts are 3 to 5 cents lower.

• SRW wheat is posting losses for the third straight session, as U.S. dollar strength provides pressure.
• Traders expect USDA to raise wheat ending stocks to 647 million bu., which would be up from 615 million bu. in September.
• A Russian drone strike hit a grain storage facility at a port in the southern Ukrainian region of Odesa overnight, damaging some of the stored grain, though Ukrainian officials didn’t disclose how much grain was damaged.
• Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat production estimate by 600,000 MT to 125.6 MMT, which would marginally higher than last year’s crop and above the five-year average.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its 2023-24 Argentine wheat crop estimate by 700,000 MT to 14.3 MMT.
• World Weather Inc. says the Southern Plains and Pacific Northwest will need greater rain for improved crop establishment. However, planting in the Midwest and northwestern Plains will continue to advance well with favorable emergence over time.
• December SRW futures have dropped below initial support at $5.51, while additional support lies at $5.46 1/4. The 10-day moving average of $5.62 continues to limit upside efforts.

Live cattle are moderately higher, while feeders are posting sharp gains at midsession.

• Live cattle are extending Wednesday’s strong gains amid corrective buying efforts.
• Cash cattle trade remains limited so far this week. Cash sources are split on eventual prices for the week, some think steady/firmer and others steady/weaker.
• Wholesale beef prices slipped Wednesday, with Choice falling 78 cents to $300.28, while Select fell 85 cents to $275.30. Movement totaled 146 loads for the day.
• October live cattle are pivoting around the 20-day moving average of $184.66, with additional resistance at $185.46, while support lies at $183.92.  

Lean hogs are narrowly at midmorning.

• October lean hogs are choppy, bound by the 20- and 40-day moving averages.
• The CME lean hog index is up 14 cents to $82.40 as of Oct. 10, marking the first increase since Sept. 20, though the index remains in a notable seasonal decline and is down $10.55 from this time last year.
• The pork cutout value dropped 68 cents Wednesday to $92.39 amid losses in all cuts except primal bellies. Movement was strong at 332.6 loads.
• October lean hogs are trading narrowly within Wednesday’s range and continue to hold between the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $82.10 and $81.97, respectively.