Market Snapshot | October 3, 2023

Corn is mostly 3 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are posting narrow losses, with spillover weakness stemming from the soy complex.
• USDA rated 53% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week. Harvest reached 23% done, two percentage points ahead of the five-year average but two points slower than traders expected.
• Crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier made no changes to his U.S. corn production estimate this week. He continues to estimate the crop at 14.93 billion bu., with a yield of 171.5 bu. per acre and noted a neutral bias going forward.
• Frosts and freezes in Canada’s Prairies and northern U.S. Plains will end the growing season Friday and Saturday, with some frost and lighter freezes expected in the northern Midwest Saturday and Sunday.
• Southern Brazil will experience frequent and heavy rainfall over the week beginning Wednesday and ending Oct. 12, delaying planting efforts but providing needed moisture, according to World Weather Inc.
• December corn is trading narrowly within Monday’s range, with initial resistance standing at Monday’s high of $4.89 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 14 to 18 cents lower, while December meal futures are more than $5.00 lower. December soyoil is around 50 points lower.

• Soybean futures are being pressured by continued  weakness in meal futures.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 265,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during 2023-24.
• USDA rated 52% of the soybean crop as “good” to “excellent,” up two percentage points from last week. Harvest progress was estimated at 23% complete, which was one percentage point ahead of average but two points slower than anticipated.
• Cordonnier left his U.S. soybean production estimate unchanged this week at 4.05 billion bushels, at a yield of 49.0 bu. per acre. He indicated a neutral bias going forward.
• Argentina’s government extended a program to boost grain/soy exports through Oct. 25, to shore up the country’s foreign reserves. Under the program, Argentine exporters can swap 25% of the foreign currency the make on alternative exchange markets that offer better rates than the official rate, which was frozen at 350 pesos per dollar in August.
• Malaysia is considering expansion of its B10 biodiesel program, which requires the mandatory use of 10% palm oil, to the industry sector, according to the country’s ag ministry. Malaysia currently implements the B10 program only for the transportation sector.
• November soybeans have reached the lowest intraday level since June 29, but have found support around $12.60 1/4. Initial resistance stands at Monday’s high of $12.79 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 1 to 4 cents higher, while HRW and HRS contracts are narrowly mixed.

• SRW wheat futures have come off earlier highs, with the U.S. dollar limiting gains.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 220,000 MT of SRW wheat for delivery to China during 2023-24 – the first daily sale of SRW since July 2021.
• USDA estimated 40% of the winter wheat crop was planted as of Oct. 1, which was three percentage points behind the five-year average.
• World Weather Inc. reports U.S. HRW wheat areas will get some sporadic rain this week benefitting some areas more than others, and some follow up moisture will be needed. Oklahoma crops may benefit most from the precip.
• Ukrainian grain exports fell 10% to 2.1 MMT in September vs. August due to difficulties with export logistics and Russian shelling of key export facilities, the UCAB agricultural business association said.
• Despite hot and dry weather in many Russian regions, winter grain planting has progressed by around 7 percentage points over the last week, according to official data released earlier today.
• December SRW futures continue to be limited at the 10-day moving average of $5.75 1/2, while initial support lies at $5.57 1/2.

Live cattle are posting sharp losses, while feeders are marking even heavier declines.

• Live cattle futures are facing pressure from technical-based selling after gapping lower at the open and violating near-term support.
• The average cash cattle price fell $1.09 from the week prior to $183.64 and is expected to continue to weaken as packers have fresh contracted supplies.
• Wholesale beef prices rebounded Monday, with Choice rising $2.30 to $303.08 and Select up 94 cents to $276.98, taking the Choice/Select spread to $26.10. Movement totaled 105 loads for the day.
• October live cattle gapped lower at the open and violated support at $184.075 and $182.575. Today’s open at $184.325, serves as initial resistance.

Lean hogs are mixed, with heavy losses in winter-month contracts.

• October lean hogs are regaining a portion of Monday’s losses, though solid overhead resistance is limiting gains.
• The CME lean hog index is down 74 cents to $84.84 as of Sept. 29, marking the largest daily decline on the pullback from recent highs and the lowest level since June 9 when prices were rising.
• The pork cutout value fell $1.19 to $96.04 amid a drop in all cuts except primal ribs and hams. Movement totaled 279.3 loads.
• October lean hogs are trading within Monday’s range, with support remaining at $79.475, while the 100-day moving average of $80.40 is providing resistance.