Market Snapshot | September 29, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 3 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are lower in narrow trade ahead of USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report.
• USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report at 11:00 a.m. CT will set final 2022-23 ending stocks. Analyst are expecting Sept. 1 stocks at 1.429 billion bushels.
• USDA reported a daily corn sale of 223,540 MT for delivery to Mexico during 2023-24.
• Argentina is still advertised to be drier than usual for at least 10 more days, despite some showers in the coming week, according to World Weather Inc. Corn planting delays are continuing with poor emergence noted.
• December corn is being supported by the 40-day moving average at $4.84 3/4, though resistance at $4.91 1/2 is limiting gains.

Soybeans are mostly 5 to 7 cents lower, while December meal futures are nearly $6.00 lower. December soyoil is around 40 points lower.

• The soy complex is under pressure, led by notable weakness in meal futures.
• Traders are expecting final 2022-23 soybean ending stocks of 242 million bu. in USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report.
• The Mississippi River dropped to a reading of -10.62 feet on the Memphis, Tennessee gauge on Thursday, just above the all-time low of -10.81 feet on Oct. 21, 2022, according to NWS data. The river is expected to remain below the -10-foot mark into at least mid-October, according to the latest forecast.
• Dry weather and favorable conditions for harvesting will occur through much of the next two weeks with one round of organized rain expected Tuesday into Thursday, according to World Weather.
• November soybeans are trading within Thursday’s range, with the 10-day moving average of $13.04 1/2 serving as resistance, while support remains at $12.89 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents lower, while HRS is 2 to 4 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are edging lower for the third straight session despite notable followthrough weakness in the U.S. dollar index.
• Traders are expecting USDA to report Sept. 1 wheat stocks at 1.772 billion bu., while final production for 2023 is expected to come in at 1.729 billion bushels.
• Ukraine’s ag ministry reported harvest in the country has yielded 41.7 MMT of grain so far. It said Ukraine is likely to harvest 56.4 MMT of grain this year, compared to 55.3 MMT in 2022.
• December SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.83, while initial support lies at $5.74 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are marking heavy losses at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures are facing corrective selling following a fresh all-time high on Thursday. 
• Cash cattle trade has averaged $183.53 so far this week, which is down $1.01 from last week’s cash average of $184.73.
• Choice boxed beef rose 56 cents on Thursday to $301.51, while Select fell $1.07 to $277.44, taking the Choice/Select spread to $24.07. Movement totaled 149 loads.
• October live cattle are trading mostly between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $185.76 and $184.56, respectively.

Lean hogs are sharply lower midsession.

• October lean hogs are under pressure from bearish data in USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report, along with weakening cash and wholesale fundamentals.
• Traders expected USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report to show the hog herd contracted fractionally as of Sept. 1. Instead, it showed the herd size up 194,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago. The breeding herd contracted 1.2% from last year but the market hog inventory increased 268,000 head (0.4%).
• The CME lean hog index is unchanged at $86.17 as of Sept. 27.
• The pork cutout value dropped 84 cents on Thursday to $96.92, led by a nearly $7 drop in primal ribs. Hams were the only cut to post a gain on the day.
• October lean hogs have dropped below the 40-day moving average of $81.95 and $81.23. Next support is at $80.95. The 10-day moving average of $82.70 continues to provide resistance.