U.S. hog herd unexpectedly expands

USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 74.319 million head as of Sept. 1, up 194,000 head (0.3%) from year-ago and 787,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd contracted 1.2% from last year but the market hog inventory increased 268,000 head (0.4%).

The summer pig crop increased 133,000 head (0.4%), despite a 3.7% decline in farrowings, given a 4.3% jump in pigs per litter to a record 11.61 head.

Looking forward, the herd expansion may be short-lived as the breeding herd is smaller and producers indicated reduced farrowing intensions for fall (-5.2%) and winter (-1.4%).

Based on the market hog inventories, slaughter will run slightly ahead of year-ago levels into next spring, whereas traders expected kill rates to decline slightly.

USDA announced revisions to past data. Most of the upward revisions to historical hog data reflect increased farrowings and pig crops in recent quarters.

The winter 2022-23 pig crop was revised up by 591,000 head, to 32.538 million, which reflected a 42,000-head revision to 2.952 million sows farrowing during the December-February period. Those boosted the March 1, 2023 U.S. hog population 875,000 head to 73.564 million. The March market inventory was adjusted up by 878,000 to 67.469 million.

The number of sows farrowing during spring was also adjusted 5,000 head higher to 2.901 million head, with the March-May pig crop revised up 316,000 head to 32.951 million.

The total U.S. June 1 hog population and the market hog herd were both revised 350,000 head higher to 72.744 million and 66.599 million head, respectively.