Market Snapshot | September 28, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are posting modest followthrough gains, with a weaker U.S. dollar supporting the grain complex.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 841,800 MT during week ended Sept. 21, which were near the middle of the pre-report range of 475,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. Net sales were up notably from the previous week and 51% above the four-week average.
• Chinese importers are believed to have made large purchase of Ukrainian corn in the past two weeks. Traders were unable to state the exact volume, but noted the sale amounted to several hundred thousand metric tons.
• Argentina weather will continue drier than usual during much of the coming week to 10 days. Greater rain is needed to support early corn planting, according to World Weather Inc.
• December corn marked the highest intraday level since Sept. 12, with resistance standing at $4.87, while support lies at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.80 3/4 and $4.78 3/4, respectively.

Soybeans are mostly 5 to 6 cents lower, while December meal futures are nearly $3.00 higher. December soyoil is around 140 points lower.

• Soybeans are pulling back following four straight days of corrective gains, with soyoil weakness pressuring prices.
• For the week ended Sept. 21, USDA reported net soybean sales of 672,200 MT, which were up notably from the previous week but near the lower end of the pre-report estimates ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. China was the top purchaser for the week.
• Brazil’s soy exports are seen reaching 99 MMT in 2024 versus 98 MMT in 2023, according to the latest estimates from Safras & Mercado.
• Crude palm oil (CPO) prices in 2024 are likely to average at least 11% more than this year as the El Nino weather pattern is expected to reduce output in top producer Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI).
• November soybeans continue to consolidate between the 10-day moving average of $13.07 3/4 and support at $12.86 1/4.

SRW and HRS wheat futures are pivoting around unchanged, while HRW is 5 to 6 cents lower.

• U.S. dollar weakness is limiting seller interest in wheat, though solid overhead resistance continues to cap upside.
• USDA reported net wheat sales of 544,500 MT during week ended Sept. 21, which rose 77% from the previous week and 51% from the four-week average. Sales topped the pre-report range of 250,000 500,000 MT.
• World Weather indicates Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and lower Volga River Basin will be dry for one more week and then “some” showers will develop favoring eastern Ukraine and middle Volga River Basin with light rainfall; greater rainfall will still be needed.
• December SRW futures have made a mild rebound from earlier lows, though the 10-day moving average of $5.86 1/4 continues to provide strong resistance, while support remains at $5.73 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are marking strong gains.

• Live cattle futures are sharply higher amid strengthening wholesale fundamentals and solid export sales.
• Cash trade so far this week has slipped from last week’s average of $184.73 to $183.22, with additional weakness expected.
• Choice boxed beef rallied $1.41 on Wednesday to $300.95, though Select slid 59 cents to $278.51. Movement totaled 149 loads, marking the second straight day of solid retailer purchases.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 17,700 MT for 2023, which rose 29% from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average.
• October live cattle continue to edge sideways between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $185.99 and $184.37, respectively.

Lean hogs are posting strong gains at midsession.

• October lean hogs are notching solid followthrough gains despite weakening cash and wholesale fundamentals, though overhead resistance is limiting upside momentum.
• USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report at 2:00 p.m. CT is expected to show the hog herd down 0.8% from last year as of Sept. 1. Market hogs are expected to decline 0.7%, while the breeding herd is anticipated to be 1.3% smaller. Analysts expect summer farrowings to come in 3.4% smaller than last year, while fall/winter farrowing intentions are expected to fall 3.5% and 2.1%, respectively.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 17 cents to $86.14 as of Sept. 26, marking the fourth straight daily decline, though that’s still above the Sept. 5 low of $86.01.
• China’s sow herd totaled 42.41 million head at the end of August, according to the country’s ag ministry, which was down 0.7% from July and 1.9% smaller than year-ago. Hog slaughter surged to 22.1% from year-ago in August.
• The pork cutout value dropped 52 cents on Wednesday to $97.76 amid declines in all cuts except primal butts and ribs. Movement totaled 257.6 loads for the day.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 27,400 MT for 2023, which fell 9% from the previous week and 6% from the four-week average.
• Gains in October lean hogs are being limited by the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $82.96 and $82.99, respectively. Meanwhile, the 40-day moving average of $81.99 is notable support.