Market Snapshot | September 27, 2023

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is mostly 4 to 5 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are posting gains for the fourth straight session, with strong crude oil gains lending support.
  • Eastern and southern Illinois to Kentucky and the western half of Ohio will see rain and interruptions to fieldwork today while most other areas are dry and will see favorable conditions for harvesting, according to World Weather Inc.
  • Ethanol production in week ended Sept. 22 averaged 1.099 million barrels per day (bpd), which rose 29,000 bpd and was 18.0% above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased 367,000 barrels to 22.048 million barrels.
  • December corn is being capped by the 40-day moving average of $4.85 1/4, while the 10-day of $4.80 1/2 provides support.

Soybeans are mostly 10 to 12 cents higher, while December meal futures are chopping around unchanged. December soyoil is around 110 points higher.

  • Soybeans are marking corrective gains for the fourth straight session, despite notable overhead resistance and persisting U.S. dollar strength.
  • World Weather notes some concern remains for summer crops in Mato Grosso where erratic and lighter-than-usual rain may occur for a little while longer. Greater rain next week in center-south crop areas will prove to be helpful for spring planting.
  • Palm oil prices could rise by at least $100 per metric ton in the next four to six months as growth in supplies slows amid rising demand from the food and biodiesel industries, according to analysts.
  • November soybean are capped by the 10-day moving average of $13.15 3/4, with the 200-day moving average of $13.27 1/4 serving up additional resistance. Initial support lies at $12.91 3/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower, while HRW is 5 to 7 cents lower. HRS wheat is 2 to 5 cents lower.

  • Wheat futures are being pressured by solid gains in the U.S. dollar.
  • Poland and Ukraine are making strides in discussions to resolve the ongoing disagreement regarding Poland’s ban on Ukrainian grain imports. Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus said both sides are actively engaged in dialogue and are working to establish future mechanisms while addressing emotional aspects of the dispute.
  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry kept the 2023 grain forecast unchanged at 57 MMT as harvest exceeds initial forecasts amid favorable weather.
  • December SRW futures are trading narrowly in rangebound trade, mostly between the 20-day moving average of $5.92 3/4 and support of $5.82 1/2.

Live cattle are mildly favoring the downside, while feeders are sharply lower.

  • Live cattle are lower for the third consecutive session following Tuesday’s sharp losses after early corrective buying faded.  
  • While the cash cattle market is well supported by tight market-ready supplies, prices could slip this week.
  • Choice boxed beef prices fell below $300.00 for the first time since May, amid a $1.94 drop on Tuesday to $299.54. Meanwhile, Select fell $1.35 to $279.10, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $20.44. Movement totaled 157 loads.
  • October live cattle are pivoting around Tuesday’s low, with support at the 20-day moving average of $184.12, while resistance stands at the 10-day of $186.02.

Lean hogs are moderately higher at midsession.

  • Corrective buying efforts are lifting hog futures, though solid overhead resistance and fading cash fundamentals are limiting gains.
  • The CME lean hog index fell for the third consecutive day, dropping 39 cents to $86.31 as of Sept. 25. While the index remains above the Sept. 5 low of $86.01, today’s drop was the largest since the rebound which began at the beginning of September.
  • The pork cutout fell 58 cents to $98.28 on Tuesday, though movement improved to 360.6 loads, indicating there is strong retailer buying under the market. But as pork supplies build seasonally, the cutout value could face heavier pressure if retailer demand doesn’t prove to be consistently strong.
  • October lean hogs have edged above the 40-day moving average of $82.03, with resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $82.98 and $83.01, respectively. Meanwhile, support remains at $81.19.
 

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