Market Snapshot | September 26, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures have pulled back from Monday’s gains, continuing to hold in the sideways pattern.
• As of Sunday, USDA rated the corn crop 53% “good to “excellent,” up two percentage points from a week ago. Harvest progress was pegged at 15%, up six points from last week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing), the corn crop increased 3.7 points to 336.6, which is now 1.4 points (0.4%) above last year.
• Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his corn yield estimate by 1.5 bu. to 171.5 bu. per acre and noted a neutral to slightly lower bias going forward. He now forecasts production at 14.93 billion bushels.
• World Weather Inc. notes rain is expected today and Wednesday from eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin to Ohio and Kentucky, causing some disruptions to farm activity and a little follow up rain is expected in the upper Midwest this weekend. Otherwise, a drier bias will prevail for a while.
• December corn futures are maintaining the recent sideways trend, with Monday’s high of $4.83 1/2 serving as resistance, while support lies at $4.75 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower, while December meal futures are around $1.50 lower. December soyoil is around 30 points higher.

• Soybeans have retreated from an overnight run above the 100-day moving average, with meal weakness weighing on the complex.
• USDA rated the soybean crop as 50% “good” to “excellent,” down two percentage points from last week. Harvest progress was pegged at 12%, up seven percentage points from a week ago. On our CCI, the crop rose 1.4 points to 332.6, though that was still 5.5 points (1.6%) below last year at this time.
• Cordonnier lowered his soybean yield by 0.5 bu. to 49 bu. per acre and indicated a neutral to slightly lower bias going forward. He now forecasts production of 4.05 billion bu.
• Brazil’s center-west crop areas are not likely to see much rain of significance through the weekend, but precip is expected to increase gradually next week, according to World Weather. While the moisture will continue lighter than usual, sufficient amounts may fall to bolster topsoil moisture for better planting and emergence and establishment conditions for soybeans.
• November soybeans are consolidating between the 100-day moving average of $13.06 and support at $12.88.

SRW wheat futures are unchanged to 2 cents higher, while HRW is mostly a penny lower. HRS wheat is holding near unchanged.

• Wheat futures are trading narrowly in choppy trade, with persisting U.S. dollar strength limiting upside momentum.
• USDA reported spring wheat harvest was 96% complete as of Sunday, while winter wheat plantings were estimated at 26%, an 11% increase from the previous week.
• Russia hit Ukrainian port infrastructure and grain storage facilities in an overnight drone strike on the grain exporting district of Izmail on the Danube River, according to Ukrainian officials.
• December SRW futures are pivoting the 10-day moving average of $5.89 1/4, with resistance at the 20-day of $5.93 3/4. Initial support lies around $5.84 1/4.  

Live cattle and feeders are posting heavy losses at midmorning.

• Live cattle are under heavy pressure, though persisting bullish fundamentals should limit selling efforts.
• USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks at the end of August at 421.6 million lbs., up 11.2 million lbs. (2.7%) from July, which was slightly less than the average increase of 11.5 million lbs. over the past five years. Beef inventories fell 92.2 million lbs. (17.9%) From the August 2022 record.
• The average cash cattle price rose 69 cents to $184.73 last week, with 87,000 head traded in the negotiated market, including 20,000 head “with time.” That was the largest weekly trading volume since June and suggests packers will be less aggressive with bids, especially with fresh contract supplies available next week.
• October live cattle are trading below the 10-day moving average of $185.87, with the 20-day moving average of $183.96 serving as the next area of support. Meanwhile, resistance stands at $187.42.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession, with deferred contracts posting mild losses.

• Hog futures have retreated from earlier attempts to move higher amid wholesale strength, with technical resistance restricting upside movement.
• USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed pork stocks totaled 471.1 million lbs., up 327,000 lbs. from July. The five-year average was 10.7-million-lb. increase during the month. Pork inventories fell 71.5 million lbs. (13.2%) from last year and were 58.1 million lbs. (11.0%) less than the five-year average.
• The CME lean hog index dropped 38 cents $86.70 as of Sept. 22.
• The pork cutout value rose $1.60 on Monday to $98.86. Packers can’t find sustained retailer demand on moves above $100.00 in the pork cutout, but there’s solid demand not far below that point.
• October lean hogs are finding support at Monday’s closing level of $81.525, while resistance stands at $82.375.