Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | DAP Leads Fertilizers Higher

Posted on 05/15/2018 12:55 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were higher with only UAN32% softer... and that, not by much.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 2.07 points to 560.13. This compares to last year's 536.99.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • UAN32 was the only decliner across our entire fertilizer survey after having firmed sharply last week.
  • Anhydrous, UAN28 and urea all firmed this week with NH3 leading gains.
  • Although the North Dakota Department of Agriculture warned of a "fertilizer shortage", states in the specified impacted areas posted steady to lower N prices.
  • While weekend rains in some areas have put the brakes on planting, by now, preplant nitrogen applications south of the Minnesota border are all but wrapped up. We should begin to see prices respond lower in the coming weeks.

Phosphate

  • After falling last week, DAP and MAP prices are up in this week's survey.
  • DAP added more than $5 regionally as MAP firmed 28 cents per short ton. Interestingly, $500 still lies almost exactly at the midpoint of the two.pandk indices chart
  • With the DAP/MAP spread at 28.80 this week, the exact midpoint lies at $502.70. The wide margin will need to correct itself, but manufacturing fundamentals will continue to support phosphate's overpriced condition relative to the rest of the fertilizer segment.
  • Wholesale phosphate was sideways to lower at U.S. terminals.

Potash

  • Potash prices firmed along with phosphates, but on an indexed basis, remains priced to a decent discount to NH3. If history is our guide, this indicates more upside risk for NH3.
  • Wholesale values were mixed on the week with NOLA bids up $1 and Corn Belt bids down $1.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Friday May 11 at $4.14 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $661.30 per acre -- lower $11.90 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 560.13 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread favors fertilizer buyers, narrowing 13.98 points and now stands at -101.16.
Fertilizer
4/3018
5/7/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$522.98
$525.75
+$2.29
$528.04
Anhydrous
DAP
$484.08
$482.60
+$5.70
$488.30
DAP
MAP
$516.64
$516.82
+28 cents
$517.10
MAP
Potash
$344.63
$348.47
+$1.95
$350.42
Potash
UAN28
$244.22
$243.49
+71 cents
$244.20
UAN28
UAN32
$272.27
$279.36
-19 cents
$279.17
UAN32
Urea
$370.52
$372.86
+55 cents
$373.41
Urea
Composite
554.83
558.06
+2.07
560.13
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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