Market Snapshot | August 31, 2023
Corn 1 to 2 cents higher at midmorning.
· Corn futures have turned higher on light end-of-month corrective buying.
· Rising temperatures Friday and into the weekend will likely speed up crop maturation and hurt grain fill. Temperatures are expected to cool in the middle to late part of next week, World Weather Inc says. Conditions are expected to be mostly dry over the next two weeks.
· USDA reported net corn sales of 71,700 MT for 2022-23 and net sales of 991,800 MT for 2023-24 for the week ended Aug. 24. Traders expected (150,000) to 150,000 MT for 2022-23 and 400,000 MT to 1.1 MMT for 2023-24. New-crop sales were a marketing-year high.
· Today marks the start of the delivery process for September grain contracts. As expected, there were no deliveries against September corn futures.
· December corn remains in a short-term consolidation range above the recent lows. Bulls are targeting $4.87 resistance, while $4.80 marks initial support.
Soybeans are 6 to 7 cents lower and September meal futures are around $3.00 lower. September soyoil is around 50 points higher.
· Soybean futures are facing price pressure for the third day in a row, despite the highest export sales of the 2023-24 crop year.
· USDA reported daily soybean sales of 132,000 MT to China for 2023-24. That marks the fifth trading day in a row with daily soybean sales to China or unknown destinations, totaling 1.061 MMT over that period.
· Rain chances increase Tuesday and into Wednesday of next week in roughly half of the Corn Belt. Immature beans should benefit from the rains but they are coming too late for much of the crop, World Weather Inc says.
· USDA reported net soybean sales reductions of 50,700 MT for 2022-23 – a marketing-year low. Net sales of 1.1 MMT for 2023-24 were led by unknown destinations (399,400 MT) and China (392,500 MT). Traders expected 50,000 to 300,000 MT for 2022-23 and 600,000 to 1.4 MMT for 2023-24. New crop sales were a marketing year high.
· November soybeans are slowly descending into $13.74 support after the recent push higher. Initial resistance can be expected at the psychological $14.00 level.
SRW wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher, while HRW futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower. HRS contracts are 7 to 8 cents lower.
• SRW wheat futures are being supported by end-of-month corrective buying following a drop to new contract lows overnight.
• Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia’s resort of Sochi on Sept. 4 to primarily discuss Black Sea grain exports, two Turkish sources told Reuters.
• Russia’s IKAR agriculture consultancy raised its forecasts for Russia’s wheat crop to 91 MMT from 89.5 MMT previously. It raised the export forecast to 49.5 MMT from 47.5 MMT.
• USDA reported net wheat sales of 329,100 MT for 2023-24, down 19% from the previous week and 25% below the four-week average. China was the lead buyer at 110,000 MT. Traders expected 250,000 to 700,000 MT for 2023-24.
• December SRW futures made a contract low at $5.93 1/2 before bouncing. The contract is working on a potential key bullish reversal. Initial resistance stands at $6.19 3/4. Initial support stands at $5.99 1/2.
Live cattle and feeders are modestly lower at midsession.
· Live cattle continue to consolidate near the downtrend line from July and August highs, awaiting a catalyst to break either way.
· Cash prices have averaged $186.57 thus far, though volume has been minimal – and that price action is not considered a good market test.
· Wholesale beef prices were mixed yesterday as Choice is finding strength around the $315.00 level. Choice prices rose 75 cents to $315.11, though Select fell 15 cents to $289.53. Uncertainty in cash prices is no help in determining near-term direction in wholesale prices.
· October live cattle futures are trading within Wednesday’s boundaries. Initial support is at Wednesday’s low at $179.75.
Lean hogs are mostly weaker at midsession.
· Lean hogs are consolidating after yesterday’s push to the highest level since Aug. 9 that included a bullish outside day up.
· The CME lean hog index fell $1.74 to $90.67 on Tuesday as the seasonal decline continues to accelerate.
· The pork cutout value continues to face pressure and is at the lowest value in over two months, falling 73 cents to $92.12 yesterday. Despite recent weakness, movement has remained solid at 310 loads.
· October lean hogs have traded in the tightest range since Aug. 16 so far as yesterday’s bullish break higher encounters resistance from a deteriorating cash market. Initial resistance stands at $84.25, while $83.15 marks initial support.
