Market Snapshot | August 28, 2023

Corn is posting solid gains, up 5 to 6 cents at midmorning.

·         Corn futures are taking spillover strength from soybeans, but gains remain relatively modest.

·         The Midwest is expected to see net drying over the next 10 to 12 days, though some rain is expected. Temperatures are seen as rising well above normal once again during the latter part of this week and through all of next week, World Weather Inc. reports.

·         USDA reported weekly export inspections of 597,144 MT (23.5 million bu.) for the week ended Aug. 24, which was up from last week’s revised 510,559 MT and above pre-report expectations.

·         USDA reported a daily sale of 123,000 MT of corn to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year.

·         December corn is trading higher, but gains remain capped by the 20-day moving average at $4.95, the 10-day moving average is providing support at $4.89.

Soybeans are 10 to 12 cents higher, while September meal futures are near unchanged. September soyoil is around 20 points higher.

·         Soybean futures are leading the complex higher, trading above $14.00 for the first time since July. Soybean meal futures are struggling to maintain the gap higher. Soyoil came off the early highs but found a bid after the break this morning.

·         USDA reported a daily sale of 296,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations during 2023-24.

·         USDA reported weekly export inspections of 322,149 MT (11.8 million bu.) for the week ended Aug. 24, which was roughly in line with last week. Inspections were in the middle of the pre-report range.

·         Argentina soybean crushing reached the lowest volume in 15 years in the first quarter of the 2023-24 crop year, with 11.9 MMT processed between April and July, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Volume is expected to remain low because of the poor crop.

·         November soybean have traded as high as $14.09 1/2, the highest intraday level since July 27, with resistance serving at $14.25. Initial support lies at $13.80.

SRW wheat futures are around 6 cents lower, while HRW futures 13 to 15 cents lower. HRS contracts are 5 to 10 cents lower, led lower by nearby contracts.

·         SRW wheat continues to face weakness despite strength in corn and soybeans.

·         A second ship has passed through the makeshift Black Sea corridor from Ukraine since the end of the grain deal in mid-July. This ship contained steel products and is in route to Africa. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskow said the passage of the ship has nothing to do with a new grain deal.

·         USDA reported weekly inspections of 390,364 MT (14.3 million bu.) for the week ended Aug. 24, 79,050 MT above the prior week and within expectations.

·         Ukrainian authorities are engaging in conversations with both commodity traders and global insurance companies to establish a government-supported initiative that facilitates ship travel to the country’s ports.

·         December SRW futures have traded as low as $6.12 1/2, which is just above the Aug. 17 low that remains support at $6.12. Initial resistance stands at $6.31 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are posting gains, with feeders leading the way higher.

·         Live cattle are posting gains after mild profit-taking at the open and are working on the fourth higher close in a row.

·         Cash cattle trade is expected to have come in higher on Friday, supporting bull’s hopes today, last week’s cash average will come out around noon.

·         Wholesale beef prices continue to trend higher, posting a 27-cent gain in Choice to $317.90 and a 76-cent rise in Select to $292.67, bringing the Choice/Select spread to $25.23. Movement on the day was fairly light at 79 loads. Packer margins have turned positive.

·         October live cattle futures are trading at the highest level since Aug. 11, continuing last week’s breakout higher. Resistance stands at $182.5 with first support coming in at $181.

Lean hogs are posting slight to strong gains at midsession.

·         Lean hogs are higher after gapping lower this morning as dip buyers seemingly entered the market.

·         The CME lean hog index fell $1.22 to $95.18, the biggest decline since the seasonal downturn in early August.

·         The pork cutout value collapsed $11.50 on Friday to $93.42, with most of the decline coming from a $58.48 drop in bellies. Most of that drop is likely to be negated in today’s report.

·         October lean hogs lower on the open but have since turned higher on the day despite Friday’s disappointing wholesale prices. Prices are near 40-day moving average resistance at $81.10, support is at $80.30 and backed by the $80 level.