Evening Report | August 25, 2023
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Pro Farmer national corn and soybean crop estimates:
Corn: 14.960 billion bu.; Average yield of 172.0 bu. per acre
Corn +/- 1% = 15.110 - 14.810 billion bu.; 173.7 to 170.3 bpa
Soybean: 4.110 billion bu.; Average yield of 49.7 bu. per acre
Soybeans +/- 2% = 4.192 to 4.028 billion bu.; 50.7 to 48.7 bpa.
Note: The national estimates above reflect Pro Farmer’s view on production and yields. They take into account data gathered during Crop Tour and other factors like weather during Crop Tour, crop maturity, historical differences in Tour data versus USDA’s final yields, areas outside those sampled on Tour, etc. That’s why the state yield numbers below differ from the Crop Tour figures. Based on August FSA certified acreage data, we increased harvested corn acres 675,000 from August. We made no adjustment to soybean harvested acres.
Following are Pro Farmer’s state by state corn yield estimates:
Iowa: 197 bu. per acre. Corn in Iowa took a beating from the extreme heat during Crop Tour week, which added to stress from dryness/drought. Some of the state’s crop is waving the white flag with ears already hanging, but there are areas with big yields.
Illinois: 203 bu. per acre. The Illinois corn crop had already built a big yield ahead of the heat wave. But there was too much variability to challenge last year’s record yield.
Nebraska: 173 bu. per acre. Dryland corn is extremely variable and will be low-yielding. Irrigated corn is holding its own, but the crop showed signs of stress during pollination and from last week’s heat.
Minnesota: 175 bu. per acre. The Minnesota corn crop lacked the wow factor. Our samples revealed extreme variability and a lot of barren stalks. The crop is maturing quickly, which eliminates the risk of a frost ending the growing season early, but also limits the ability to add to yields into harvest.
Indiana: 194 bu. per acre. The Indiana corn crop has record yield potential if it finishes strong. Crop maturity was behind normal, signaling it will need some late-season rains and moderate temps to add bushels.
Ohio: 192 bu. per acre. The Ohio corn crop was the most impressive we saw during Crop Tour. With that said, Ohio won’t out-yield the “I” states. The crop was immature, but risk of an early frost typically isn’t a concern in the state.
South Dakota: 144 bu. per acre. The South Dakota corn crop is much improved from last year, but that doesn’t mean it’s a great crop. Maturity will prevent late-season surprises — up or down.
Following are Pro Farmer’s state by state soybean yield estimates:
Note: The following estimates are a snapshot during the third week of August. Dry weather and disease cap yield potential.
Iowa: 55 bu. per acre. Disease issues in western and central Iowa combined with late-season moisture stress points the state yield lower. Fields across the state are already starting to turn in the third week of August.
Illinois: 62 bu. per acre. The Illinois soybean crop is heavily podded, but late-season heat will keep the yield from building. Fortunately, crop maturity should also limit late-season yield losses.
Nebraska: 52 bu. per acre. Nebraska is a tale of two crops. The irrigated soybeans will finish and be a solid crop. The dryland crop is deteriorating each day. We literally saw some fields dying right in front of us during Crop Tour.
Minnesota: 46 bu. per acre. Yield losses in Minnesota soybeans will be led by the southeast area, with additional losses in south-central locations. Soybeans in southwest Minnesota could still finish strong if they get late-season rains.
Indiana: 60.5 bu. per acre. There are a lot of pods in Indiana. But the crop lacked a little in maturity. The Indiana crop will need time and some late-season rains to fulfill the yield potential we found on Crop Tour.
Ohio: 57.5 bu. per acre. The state’s crop is heavily podded and rains fell after we sampled during Crop Tour. Because of the lack of maturity, the crop will still need time to maximize its strong yield factory.
South Dakota: 41 bu. per acre. We found a huge year-over-year increase in South Dakota pod counts. Late plantings and a lack of pod fill for the third week of August will hold back yield potential, but it’s a better crop than last year.
Diesel set for all-time record 9th straight weekly gain…Diesel futures jumped 2.4% to $3.23 per gallon, the highest closing price since Jan. 27 and is the ninth consecutive weekly increase; the longest string of increases ever in data going back to 1978. The price surge comes in part due to higher oil prices, but also amid speculation that the U.S. will be ramping up its exports of diesel to Europe this winter—for transportation and heating purposes. The sharp increase in diesel futures is also causing retail U.S. diesel prices to rise, with AAA reporting the national average is $4.36/ gallon, up 12% from a month ago.
The U.S. sees viable routes to export Ukrainian grain…through the country’s territorial waters and overland after Russia withdrew from the grain deal, a senior U.S. official said, adding that they aim to return to exporting at pre-war averages from Ukraine over the next months. U.S. officials said Monday that Ukraine is considering using its newly tested wartime Black Sea export corridor for grain shipments after other cargo ships follow the first successful evacuation of a vessel on the route last week.
The return of the El Nino weather phenomenon should boost South American…soybean production as more rainfall can help farmers recover from this season’s severe drought in the lower latitudes of the continent, according to meteorologists and grain analysts.
While Brazil could set a new soybean production record of around 160 MMT in the 2023-24 cycle, Argentina’s soy output could almost double, analysts say.
“It is a very classic El Nino with above average rainfall in southern Brazil and below average in the north and northeast,” said Safras & Mercado analyst Luiz Roque. As rainfall returns to Argentina, Roque forecasts output at 45-48 MMT, compared to 25 MMT in 2023.
Safras & Mercado says Brazil can produce 163 MMT of soybeans in the season that begins in September, but that projection could be revised lower based on indications that starting in November, the northern half of Brazil, including the center-west and southeast may receive below-average rainfall.
India has imposed a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice…with immediate effect, a move that could further reduce shipments from the world’s largest exporter and lift global rice prices, which are already trading near their highest levels in 12 years.
Last month, India surprised buyers by imposing a ban on exports of widely consumed non-basmati white rice, following a ban on broken rise exports last year. The ban prompted some buyers to increase purchases of parboiled and lifted its prices to record highs, said Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
“With this duty, Indian parboiled rice would become as expensive as supplies from Thailand and Pakistan. “There is hardly any option for buyers not,” the dealer said.
In July the United Nations food agency rice price index jumped to its highest level in nearly 12 years as prices in key exporting countries jumped on strong demand after India imposed restrictions on the exports.
India accounts for more than 40% of world rice exports and low inventories with other exporters mean any cut in shipments could inflate food prices already driven up by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year and by erratic weather.
