Pro Farmer releases 2023 national corn and soybean estimates

Note: The national estimates above reflect Pro Farmer’s view on production and yields. They take into account data gathered during Crop Tour and other factors like weather during Crop Tour, crop maturity, historical differences in Tour data versus USDA’s final yields, areas outside those sampled on Tour, etc. That’s why the state yield numbers below differ from the Crop Tour figures. Based on August FSA certified acreage data, we increased harvested corn acres 675,000 from August. We made no adjustment to soybean harvested acres.

Following are Pro Farmer’s state by state corn yield estimates:

Iowa: 197 bu. per acre. Corn in Iowa took a beating from the extreme heat during Crop Tour week, which added to stress from dryness/drought. Some of the state’s crop is waving the white flag with ears already hanging, but there are areas with big yields.

Illinois: 203 bu. per acre. The Illinois corn crop had already built a big yield ahead of the heat wave. But there was too much variability to challenge last year’s record yield.

Nebraska: 173 bu. per acre. Dryland corn is extremely variable and will be low-yielding. Irrigated corn is holding its own, but the crop showed signs of stress during pollination and from last week’s heat.

Minnesota: 175 bu. per acre. The Minnesota corn crop lacked the wow factor. Our samples revealed extreme variability and a lot of barren stalks. The crop is maturing quickly, which eliminates the risk of a frost ending the growing season early, but also limits the ability to add to yields into harvest. 

Indiana: 194 bu. per acre. The Indiana corn crop has record yield potential if it finishes strong. Crop maturity was behind normal, signaling it will need some late-season rains and moderate temps to add bushels.

Ohio: 192 bu. per acre. The Ohio corn crop was the most impressive we saw during Crop Tour. With that said, Ohio won’t out-yield the “I” states. The crop was immature, but risk of an early frost typically isn’t a concern in the state.

South Dakota: 144 bu. per acre. The South Dakota corn crop is much improved from last year, but that doesn’t mean it’s a great crop. Maturity will prevent late-season surprises — up or down.

Following are Pro Farmer’s state by state soybean yield estimates:

Note: The following estimates are a snapshot during the third week of August. Dry weather and disease cap yield potential.

Iowa: 55 bu. per acre. Disease issues in western and central Iowa combined with late-season moisture stress points the state yield lower. Fields across the state are already starting to turn in the third week of August.

Illinois: 62 bu. per acre. The Illinois soybean crop is heavily podded, but late-season heat will keep the yield from building. Fortunately, crop maturity should also limit late-season yield losses.  

Nebraska: 52 bu. per acre. Nebraska is a tale of two crops. The irrigated soybeans will finish and be a solid crop. The dryland crop is deteriorating each day. We literally saw some fields dying right in front of us during Crop Tour.

Minnesota: 46 bu. per acre. Yield losses in Minnesota soybeans will be led by the southeast area, with additional losses in south-central locations. Soybeans in southwest Minnesota could still finish strong if they get late-season rains.

Indiana: 60.5 bu. per acre. There are a lot of pods in Indiana. But the crop lacked a little in maturity. The Indiana crop will need time and some late-season rains to fulfill the yield potential we found on Crop Tour. 

Ohio: 57.5 bu. per acre. The state’s crop is heavily podded and rains fell after we sampled during Crop Tour. Because of the lack of maturity, the crop will still need time to maximize its strong yield factory.  

South Dakota: 41 bu. per acre. We found a huge year-over-year increase in South Dakota pod counts. Late plantings and a lack of pod fill for the third week of August will hold back yield potential, but it’s a better crop than last year.