Market Snapshot | August 24, 2023

Corn is mostly 2 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing pressure from lackluster export data and weakness in SRW wheat futures amid strength in the U.S. dollar.
• Scouts on day 3 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average yield of 193.72 bu. per acre in Illinois, up from 190.71 bu. last year and the three-year average of 192.14 bu. per acre. In western Iowa, average yields for Districts 1, 4 and 7 were 182.58 bu., 168.71 bu. and 184.84 bu. per acre, respectively, compared to 183.37 bu., 188.74 and 173.70 bu. per acre, respectively last year. The three-year averages for Iowa Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 182.11 bu., 184.77 bu. and 183.64 bu. per acre, respectively.
• On Day 4 of the Crop Tour, scouts will sample fields through eastern and central Iowa as well as southern Minnesota. The Tour will conclude tonight in Rochester, Minnesota. Results for Iowa and Minnesota will be released at 8 p.m. CT on our website.
• USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report showed net sales reductions of 22,700 MT for 2022-23, which were down noticeably from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales of 673,500 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 0 to 250,000 MT for 2022-23 and 200,000 to 750,000 MT for 2023-24.
• Brazil is set to overtake the U.S. this year as the world’s top corn exporter, reflecting both a bumper harvest and logistical breakthroughs such as the consolidation of northern export routes, which are boosting the country’s competitiveness.
• December corn continues to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.85 1/4, with additional resistance serving at $4.95 1/2. Initial support lies at $4.81 3/4.

Soybeans are 2 cents lower to a penny higher, while September meal futures are over $6.00 higher. September soyoil is around 100 points lower.

• Soybean futures are posting choppy gains amid fading strength in meal futures and notable weakness in soyoil.
• On Day 3 of the Crop Tour, scouts found average soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square of 1,270.61 in Illinois, up from 1,249.70 last year and above the three-year average of 1,258.96. In western Iowa, average pod counts in Districts 1, 4 and 7 averaged 1,137.24, 1,120.3 and 1,170.28, compared to 1,089.74, 1,258.94 and 1,223.85 in 2022. The three-year averages are 1,064.13, 1220.53 and 1,251.83 respectively.
• USDA reported net sales of 364,900 MT for 2022-23, up from reductions from the previous week and nearly triple the prior four-week average. Net sales of 1.218 MMT were reported for 2023-24. Traders expected sales to range from 0 to 200,000 MT for 2022-23 and 550,000 MT to 1.25 MMT for 2023-24.
• World Weather Inc. forecasts two more weeks of mostly restricted rain across the Midwest along with another day of heat from southwestern central areas will lead to significant drying, with some soybeans likely to suffer yield declines in drier areas. Though soil moisture is high enough in much of the region to support crop development.
• November soybean strength continues to be curbed by resistance at $13.72 1/4, though an extension above the area will likely find bulls headed for $14.00. Solid resistance continues to serve around the 10-, 20- and 200-day moving averages of $13.38 1/2, $13.32 3/4 and $13.31 ¼, respectively.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 5 to 6 cents lower, while HRW futures are mostly 2 cents lower. HRS contracts are mostly a penny to 3 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are handing back Wednesday’s gains amid persisting U.S. dollar strength, though solid technical support is curbing losses.
• USDA reported net sales of 406,000 MT for 2023-24, up 13% from the previous week and 3% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales to range between 250,000 to 450,000 MT for 2023-24.
• The southern Ukrainian region of Odesa, which has ports on the Black Sea and Danube River, is introducing a new export control mechanism for grain, according to regional governor Oleh Kiper. From now on, vessels will be loaded only after a preliminary analysis of the legality of the grain’s origin and all customs declarations would have to be registered prior to the loading of export goods.
• Hungary wants to EU’s ban on domestic sales of Ukrainian grain to be extended in the five EU member states bordering Ukraine after the current measure ends on Sept. 15, according to Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief of staff.
• September SRW futures are pivoting mostly around the 10-day moving average of $6.06, with $6.20 1/4 serving as the next area of resistance. Initial support lies at $6.01 1/2.

Live cattle are marking slight gains, while feeders are solidly higher.

• Live cattle are trading cautiously higher as traders await cash cattle trade to develop.
• Choice boxed beef boxes remained unchanged on Wednesday at $317.05, while Select rose $25.46, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $25.46. Meanwhile, movement increased to 109 loads.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 11,400 MT for 2023, down 25% from the previous week and 28% from the four-week average.
• October live cattle are trading within Wednesday’s lower range, with support serving at $177.93, while initial resistance stands at $178.82.

Lean hogs are moderately higher at midsession.

• Lean hogs are posting modest, corrective gains after facing recent pressure amid continued weakness in cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is projected to fall another 67 cents to $97.37 as of Aug. 22, extending the seasonal decline.
• The pork cutout value slid $2.86 lower on Wednesday to $100.79, led by an over $17 drop in bellies. Movement totaled 299 loads.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 33,000 MT for 2023, up 15% from the previous week and 405 from the four-week average.
• October lean hogs traded the lowest level since Aug. 16 early in the session but continues to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $79.62. Meanwhile initial support serves at $77.87.