Market Snapshot | August 23, 2023

Corn is mostly 6 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are edging higher despite weakness in crude oil but continues to consolidate mostly sideways.
• Scouts on day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average yield of 180.89 bu. per acre in Indiana, up from 177.85 bu. last year but down from the three-year average of 183.72 bu. per acre. In Nebraska, scouts found an average yield of 167.22 bu. per acre, up from 158.53 bu. last year but down from the three-year average of 172.01 bu. per acre.
• Today, scouts on the western leg of the Tour will take samples from fields in western Iowa, while scouts on the eastern leg will sample western Illinois and eastern Iowa. Day 3 results for Illinois and Iowa districts 1, 4 and 7 will be released at 8 pm CT.
• Weekly ethanol production in week ended August 18 totaled 1.048 million barrels per day (bpd), falling 21,000 bpd on the week. Ethanol stocks dropped approximately 600,000 barrels on the week to 22.8 million barrels.  
• December corn has turned above the 10-day moving average of $4.85 3/4, though additional resistance stands at $4.91. Initial support lies at $4.79 3/4

Soybeans are trading 2 to 8 cents higher, while September meal futures are around $5.00 higher. September soyoil is 40 points higher.

• Soybean futures are attempting to rebound from an early morning test of support, with meal and soyoil strength helping secure gains.
• USDA reported export sales of 100,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during 2023-24.
• On day 2 of the Crop Tour, scouts found an average pod count in a 3’x3’ square of 1,309.96 in Indiana, up from 1,165.97 last year and the three-year average of 1,228.94. Meanwhile, in Nebraska, scouts found an average pod count of 1,160.02, up from last year’s average of 1,063.72, but lower than the three-year average of 1,196.02.
• World Weather Inc. indicates the central and western Midwest, northern Delta and middle three-fourths of the Great Plains will experience net drying over the next ten days and perhaps longer. However, current heat wave in the central U.S. will only last two more days.
• November soybeans are pivoting mostly around the 40-day moving average of $13.48 1/4, with initial resistance standing at $13.66 1/2. Initial support lies around the near convergence of the 20- and 200-day moving averages of $13.33 1/2 and $13.31 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 6 to 9 cents higher, while HRW futures are around 11 to 12 cents higher. HRS contracts are mostly 6 to 7 cents higher.

• SRW wheat futures are notching slight gains in rangebound trade amid weakness in the U.S. dollar.
• A Russian drone struck Ukrainian grain infrastructure near the Danube River overnight, damaging a storage and cargo complex in the Odesa region—the eighth wave of attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure since Russia quit the Black Sea grain deal.
• Ukraine’s exports have reached 3.83 MMT so far in the 2023-24 June-July season, according to Agriculture Ministry data. The ministry gave no comparative data for the same period a year earlier, but said shipments stood at 3.3 MMT as of Aug. 25, 2022.
• September SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $6.11 3/4, while support serves at $5.93 3/4.  

Live cattle and feeders are posting moderate gains.

• Live cattle have rallied from earlier lows, recapturing a portion of Tuesday’s losses as bullish fundamentals continue to support futures.
• Cash cattle trade will likely develop late week as feedlots and packers are each seeking an edge. Back-to-back weakness in cash prices could lead to an additional push lower, though bullish fundamentals prevail amid a tight supply of market ready cattle.
• Wholesale prices rose Tuesday, with Choice rising $1.49 to $3.17.05, while Select gained $2.18 to $289.51, taking the Choice/Select spread to $27.54. Meanwhile, movement remained light at 96 loads.
• October live cattle are consolidating sideways, mostly between the 10-day moving average of $179.89 and support at $177.875.

Lean hogs mixed at midsession.

• Lean hogs are trading a choppy, narrow range, though October futures are posting mild strength given the contract’s persisting discount to the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index is projected to extend its seasonal decline with another 77-cent decline to $98.04 as of Monday.
• The Pork cutout value gave up $1.56 on Tuesday amid a $9 drop in bellies, landing at $103.65. However, movement was solid at 373 loads for the day.
• October lean hogs have extended below the 100- and 10-day moving averages of $80.28 and $80.02, though additional support lies around $78.76. Meanwhile, the 40-day moving average of $81.95 serves as initial resistance.