Evening Report | August 22, 2023
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Preliminary Route Report with Brian Grete, eastern Tour leader
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Indiana: Huntington, Kosciusko, Marshall, Starke.
Districts 1, 2, 3
Corn yield range:
- 126.5 to 205.9 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 173.7 bpa
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:
- 911 to 2,311
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 1,268.8
Please share a few (one to three) comments from your route:
The last field we saw was the farthest to maturity—finally saw some dented corn. Maturity is certainly lagging in northern Indiana. Ear counts were good, but not great. Grain length was solid, but again, not great. Nothing looked outstanding—yields were lower than I had imagined. There were some fields that had obviously been replanted in spots, based on the notable variability within the same field.
Soybean pod counts were good—had one really sizeable pod count. Pods were starting to plump—none were flowering. Mother nature will be the determining factor in how the crop finishes out. Soil moisture was average, and fields were relatively clean.
Preliminary Route Report with Mark Bernard, eastern Tour consultant
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Indiana: Tipton, Howard, Carroll, Cass, Pulaski, Jasper
Corn yield range:
- 156.7 to 230.5 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 191.7 bpa
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:
- 442.1 to 1675
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 976.53
Please share a few comments from your route:
The central/northern Indiana corn crop was not quite the crop that I anticipated it might be. The route took us up north into some of the lighter soils—while there were fields under pivot—we pulled all our samples from dryland fields. Some moisture stress was cropping up in areas, especially with heat coming in. The maturity was far advanced from the fields seen in Ohio, most fields were dented or in the process. Weed pressure seemed a bit more prevalent today.
The soybean crop was decent overall, with very little disease and insect pressure. Weather will be key into next month, though.
Preliminary Route Report with Chip Flory, western Tour leader
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Nebraska: Seward, Saline, Lancaster, Otoe, Gage
Districts 6, 9
Corn yield range:
- 100.5 to 205.4 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 157.14 bpa
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:
- 598 to 2,188
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 1,355.6
Please share a few comments from your route:
We were in just two fields of irrigated corn in Nebraska, but Tour consultant, Brent Judisch was in a fair amount of irrigated corn around Grand Island—which looked really good, with a couple fields yielding 250-bu.-plus. Dryland corn on day 2 in Nebraska was generally not good in the south-central part of the state, though it did get better as we got closer to the Platt River and even better as scouts moved east. We had a yield top 200 bu. per acre on dryland in Otoe Co.—there were several dryland corn yields further south at less than 75 bu. per acre. Disease and insect pressure was light—some scouts did find Western Bean Cutworm, but most did not.
Soybean pod counts were all over the place. Water is the issue—some bean fields with good pod counts are now heavily stressed and the forecast suggests more stress this week. That might end the growing season for some of the most-stressed bean fields. There are fields that hold a dryland bean crop this is already starting to “check-out.” There are some stem borer issues in the bean crop. One of my samples had three dead plants and 18 viable plants in a 3-foot row on 30-inch rows. It appeared stem borer was the culprit in this field.
The bean crop is figuring out how many beans it will take to make a pound right now, and that number seems to be going up in most locations.
Preliminary Route Report with Brent Judisch, western Tour consultant
What counties (with state and district) have you sampled from?
Nebraska: Hamilton, York, Fillmore and Saline
Corn yield range:
- 158 to 235 bpa
Corn yield average:
- 198 bpa
Soybean pod count range in 3’x3’ square:
- 237 to 1,816
Soybean pod count average in 3’x3’ square:
- 1,130
Please share a few (one to three) comments from your route:
We started at Grand Island and worked east to York and then South to I-80. All morning samples came from irrigated fields. The Nebraska Irrigated crop looks good—generally healthy overall, but the crop overall will likely be average or slightly below.
Beans look good—irrigated beans should finish strong. Expected to see more pod counts but will likely turn out to be a good crop. Did see some lodging in areas, though it wasn’t a widespread issue. Plant health is solid, with little disease and minimal weed pressure.
New technology to boost U.S. crops…in the coming years, but worry about labor availability, according to comments by participants at a soybean conference.
Farmers said technological developments, including new soy and corn varieties and equipment to sample soils will drive yields higher in coming seasons as they allow for a better understanding of what is needed to boost output. Seed producers have been developing new hybrids in an effort to address a changing climate, generally warmer and dryer.
Strong U.S. data makes ‘reacceleration scenario’ possible…The Federal Reserve much be open to the possibility that the economy will begin to reaccelerate rather than slow, with potential implications for the U.S. central bank’s inflation fight, commented Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin earlier today. U.S. retail sales were stronger-than-expected in July, and with consumer confidence also rising, “the reacceleration scenario has come onto the table in a way that it wasn’t three or four months ago,” Barkin noted in an interview with Reuters. That includes a possibility “that inflation stays high and economy strengthens,” Barkin said. “If I got convinced that inflation was remaining high and demand was giving no signal that inflation was going to come down, that would make the case” for further tightening of monetary policy through higher interest rates.
Barkin stated he would not prejudge what the central bank should do at its meeting next month, when it is widely expected to leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current 5.35%-5.50% range. Inflation has declined in recent months, though it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and there is still more data to come on jobs and prices that could influence the outcome of the next policy session.
Officials are also discussing the degree to which the economy has fully absorbed the aggressive rate hikes delivered by the Fed since it began its monetary tightening campaign in March 2022. Since the last policy meeting in July, the yields on long-term and 2-year U.S. Treasuries have risen sharply, raising borrowing costs for households and businesses. Barkin said, however, there was nothing in the recent market movements which caused him to think financial conditions were tightening too quickly or in ways that were concerning.
Chinese soy buyers forecast soybean imports…for the next five years will hover around 100 MMT, as demand for the ingredient that is mostly used to make animal feed is set to stabilize. “I’m not very positive about soy demand going forward,” noted Sun Lige, vice-president of China’s Wellhope Food Company LTD, noting that price is also a consideration for young people that are opting for poultry and not pork, as well as health concerns. Li Ying, procurement manager for Sichuan Tequ Investment Group Co. Ltd said China will buy the soy it needs either from the U.S. or South America, looking mostly at price, regardless of quality.
Rain reduces Germany’s crop…Germany’s 2023 crops of all types of grain to fall to less than 40 MMT from 43 million in 2022 after frequent rain in August-soaked crops and interrupted harvesting, the DBV association of German farmers said Tuesday. “The long period of rain means we are facing significant losses of volume and quality,” DBV President Joachim Rukwied said. Repeated rain in July and August followed by a dry May and Jume and wet spring that delayed planting.
Wheat harvest volumes are expected to fall well below last year’s 22 MMT, with at least 20 MMT or more possible this year. Wheat harvesting could be completed later this week if current dry weather continues. Germany is the European Union’s second largest wheat producer after France and often the EU’s largest producer of rapeseed, Europe’s main oilseed for edible oil, biodiesel and animal feed meal.
BRICS divisions re-emerge ahead of critical expansion debate…BRICS leaders met on Tuesday to plot the future course of the bloc of developing nations, but divisions re-emerged ahead of critical debate over a potential expansion of the group intended to boost its global clout.
Heightened tensions in the wake of the Ukraine war and Beijing’s growing rivalry with the U.S. have pushed China and Russia to seek to strengthen BRICS. They are seeking to use the Aug. 22-24 summit in Johannesburg to forge the grouping, which also includes South Africa, Brazil and India, into a counterweight to Western dominance of global institutions. China’s President, Xi Jinping remarked, “right now, changes in the world, in our times, and in history are unfolding in ways like never before, bringing human society to a critical juncture” and also stated “the course of history will be shaped by the choices we make.” However, comments from Brazil’s Lula pointed to a divergence of vision within the bloc, which political analysts say has long struggled to form a coherent view of its role in the global order. “We do not want to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States, noted Lula, “we just want to organize ourselves.”
Beyond the enlargement questions, boosting the use of member states’ local currencies in trade and financial transactions to lessen dependency of the U.S. dollar is also on the summit agenda.
White House national security advisor, Jake Sullivan said he did not see BRICS turning into a geopolitical rival of the U.S. “This is a very diverse collection of countries…with differences of views on critical issues,” he noted. China and India have periodically clashed along their disputed border, adding to the challenge of decision-making in a group that relies on consensus. And while Russia is keen to show the West it still has friends, India has increasingly reached out to the West, as has Brazil under its new leader.
While a potential BRICS enlargement remains up in the air, the grouping’s pledge to become a champion of the developing world and offer an alternative to a world order dominated by wealthy Western nations is already finding resonance. Over 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, according to South African officials. Of them, nearly two dozen have formally asked to be admitted, with some expected to send delegations to Johannesburg.
